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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.1% (No 95.9%), with $76.9K traded in total and $1.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.1% | +0.6 pts | $76.9K |
| No | 95.9% | -0.6 pts | — |
Total volume $76.9K · 24h volume $1.9K · Liquidity $18.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Russia–Ukraine War odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.1% (No 95.9%), with $76.9K traded in total and $1.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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