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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 1.8% (No 98.2%), with $175.6K traded in total and $2.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.8% | -0.1 pts | $175.6K |
| No | 98.2% | +0.1 pts | — |
Total volume $175.6K · 24h volume $2.6K · Liquidity $42.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 1.8% (No 98.2%), with $175.6K traded in total and $2.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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