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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: November 19, 2026
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $200m-$225m at 38.5%, followed by $225m+ at 33%, $175m-$200m at 19.5%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $3.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| $200m-$225m | 38.5% | +2.5 pts | $4.7K |
| $225m+ | 33% | +3.5 pts | $8.4K |
| $175m-$200m | 19.5% | -5.0 pts | $3.1K |
| $150m-$175m | 8.1% | +0.9 pts | $1.2K |
| <$150m | 5.0% | -1.1 pts | $3.4K |
Total volume $20.7K · 24h volume $3.8K · Liquidity $35.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ $200m-$225m ■ $225m+ ■ $175m-$200m · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Vincent van Gogh's “Châtaigniers en fleurs” (Lot 5) is expected to be sold at Sotheby's Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection Evening Auction on November 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the final auction sale price paid for Vincent van Gogh's “Châtaigniers en fleurs”. If the final sale price falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no sale is completed, or the sale price is not known definitively, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "<$150m".
The market will resolve according to the final listed “Lot Sold” price on Sotheby's (https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2026/legendary-the-blaquier-arrieta-collection-evening-auction/vincent-van-gogh-chataigner-en-fleurs-roses-et).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Pop Culture odds
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $200m-$225m at 38.5%, followed by $225m+ at 33%, $175m-$200m at 19.5%. The market has $20.7K in total volume and $3.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 19, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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