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What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? — Polymarket Odds

Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027

As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium at 17.5%, followed by Iran Reconstruction Funding at 17%, Dilution of Iran's Uranium at 17%. The market has $999.4K in total volume and $32.4K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Volume
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium	17.5%	+2.0 pts	$149.0K
Iran Reconstruction Funding	17%	-1.5 pts	$280.7K
Dilution of Iran's Uranium	17%	+0.5 pts	$158.1K
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)	16%	-0.5 pts	$161.2K
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)	15%	-3.5 pts	$182.5K
Enriched Uranium Surrender	5.5%	+1.5 pts	$68.0K

Total volume $999.4K · 24h volume $32.4K · Liquidity $281.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.

30-day price history

■ 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium ■ Iran Reconstruction Funding ■ Dilution of Iran's Uranium · 30-day price history (12-hour points)

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How this market resolves

Rules

Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium at 17.5%, followed by Iran Reconstruction Funding at 17%, Dilution of Iran's Uranium at 17%. The market has $999.4K in total volume and $32.4K in the last 24 hours.

When does the What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026 market end?

The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.

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Polymarket View, “What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? — Polymarket odds”, September 23, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/what-will-be-in-a-us-iran-deal-in-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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