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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is ↑ 4.25% at 85.3%, followed by ↑ 4.5% at 25.2%, ↓ 1.0% at 5.5%. The market has $1.85M in total volume and $5.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 3.5% (settled) | 100% | +0.4 pts | $9.0K |
| ↑ 4.25% | 85.3% | +6.3 pts | $133.7K |
| ↑ 4.5% | 25.2% | -0.7 pts | $41.0K |
| ↓ 1.0% | 5.5% | +2.6 pts | $2.3K |
| ↓ 3.25% | 4.2% | — | $81.7K |
| ↑ 4.75% | 4.2% | +0.1 pts | $80.7K |
| ↓ 2.0% | 3.3% | -0.1 pts | $22.4K |
| ↑ 5.5% | 2.9% | +0.2 pts | $55.5K |
| ↑ 5.25% | 2.6% | — | $142.6K |
| ↑ 5.0% | 2.2% | — | $19.8K |
| ↓ 2.75% | 2.2% | — | $366.5K |
| ↓ 2.25% | 2.2% | +0.1 pts | $41.8K |
| ↓ 0.5% | 2.1% | -0.4 pts | $107.6K |
| ↓ 0.25% | 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $132.4K |
| ↓ 1.25% | 1.9% | +0.3 pts | $5.2K |
6 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $1.85M · 24h volume $5.2K · Liquidity $370.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ ↑ 4.25% ■ ↑ 4.5% ■ ↓ 1.0% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Fed & Interest Rates odds · US Economy odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is ↑ 4.25% at 85.3%, followed by ↑ 4.5% at 25.2%, ↓ 1.0% at 5.5%. The market has $1.85M in total volume and $5.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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