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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: November 2, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is October 1 - 31, 2026 at 58.5%, followed by Does not return by November 1, 2026 at 38%, September 15 - 30, 2026 at 1.0%. The market has $93.3K in total volume and $292 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 1 - 31, 2026 | 58.5% | — | $17.2K |
| Does not return by November 1, 2026 | 38% | -0.1 pts | $19.7K |
| September 15 - 30, 2026 | 1.0% | — | $33.5K |
| September 1 - 14, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $21.5K |
| Before September 1, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -4.1 pts | $1.4K |
Total volume $93.3K · 24h volume $292 · Liquidity $5.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ October 1 - 31, 2026 ■ Does not return by November 1, 2026 ■ September 15 - 30, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Weather odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is October 1 - 31, 2026 at 58.5%, followed by Does not return by November 1, 2026 at 38%, September 15 - 30, 2026 at 1.0%. The market has $93.3K in total volume and $292 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 2, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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