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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Google at 26.5%, followed by OpenAI at 19%, xAI at 12.5%. The market has $162.8K in total volume and $3.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.5% | — | $19.8K | |
| OpenAI | 19% | -6.5 pts | $32.7K |
| xAI | 12.5% | — | $9.3K |
| Meta | 10% | — | $17.6K |
| Z.ai | 8.5% | -2.0 pts | $6.0K |
| Alibaba | 7.0% | — | $5.2K |
| Baidu | 6.5% | — | $2.1K |
| DeepSeek | 5.5% | — | $23.9K |
| Microsoft | 4.5% | — | $5.3K |
| Moonshot | 3.5% | -4.0 pts | $13.5K |
| Amazon | 3.2% | — | $6.4K |
| Meituan | 2.5% | — | $4.9K |
| Mistral | 2.4% | — | $11.7K |
| ByteDance | 0.9% | — | $4.6K |
Total volume $162.8K · 24h volume $3.3K · Liquidity $115.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Google ■ OpenAI ■ xAI · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Google at 26.5%, followed by OpenAI at 19%, xAI at 12.5%. The market has $162.8K in total volume and $3.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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