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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: September 30, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 94.1%, followed by OpenAI at 5.6%, SpaceXAI at 0.7%. The market has $73.2K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 94.1% | -1.7 pts | $26.2K |
| OpenAI | 5.6% | +2.0 pts | $25.3K |
| SpaceXAI | 0.7% | -0.4 pts | $4.8K |
| Meta | <0.1% | — | $3.3K |
| Nvidia | <0.1% | — | $1.3K |
| Z.ai | <0.1% | — | $1.1K |
| Meituan | <0.1% | — | $1.1K |
| Tencent | <0.1% | — | $937 |
| MiniMax | <0.1% | — | $912 |
| ByteDance | <0.1% | — | $886 |
| Amazon | <0.1% | — | $860 |
| StepFun | <0.1% | — | $839 |
| Xiaomi | <0.1% | — | $838 |
| Thinky | <0.1% | — | $811 |
| DeepSeek | <0.1% | — | $810 |
6 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $73.2K · 24h volume $1.6K · Liquidity $25.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Anthropic ■ OpenAI ■ SpaceXAI · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 94.1%, followed by OpenAI at 5.6%, SpaceXAI at 0.7%. The market has $73.2K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is September 30, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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