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Updated September 25, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: September 30, 2026
As of September 25, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 97.4%, followed by Microsoft AI at 2.5%, Meta at 1.0%. The market has $54.9K in total volume and $495 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 97.4% | -0.7 pts | $39.5K |
| Microsoft AI | 2.5% | -0.3 pts | $1.0K |
| Meta | 1.0% | -0.4 pts | $1.1K |
| 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $946 | |
| ByteDance | 0.4% | — | $714 |
| Tencent | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $737 |
| Black Forest Labs | 0.3% | -0.2 pts | $857 |
| Ideogram | 0.2% | — | $795 |
| Recraft | 0.2% | +0.1 pts | $755 |
| Luma AI | 0.2% | — | $708 |
| Reve | 0.1% | — | $1.4K |
| SpaceXAI | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $930 |
| Alibaba | <0.1% | -0.1 pts | $5.4K |
Total volume $54.9K · 24h volume $495 · Liquidity $12.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ OpenAI ■ Microsoft AI ■ Meta · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds
As of September 25, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 97.4%, followed by Microsoft AI at 2.5%, Meta at 1.0%. The market has $54.9K in total volume and $495 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is September 30, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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