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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is New Zealand at 11%, followed by Japan at 10.5%, Greece at 9.4%. The market has $760.5K in total volume and $7 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 11% | -1.0 pts | $124.5K |
| Japan | 10.5% | +1.0 pts | $49.0K |
| Greece | 9.4% | +0.9 pts | $46.8K |
| The Netherlands | 8.5% | — | $62.7K |
| Belgium | 8.0% | -0.5 pts | $80.0K |
| Finland | 8.0% | +1.5 pts | $38.6K |
| Italy | 7.0% | — | $28.0K |
| Germany | 5.3% | — | $130.1K |
| Austria | 4.0% | — | $173.4K |
| Israel | 4.0% | — | $297 |
| United States | 3.3% | -0.5 pts | $27.0K |
Total volume $760.5K · 24h volume $7 · Liquidity $79.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ New Zealand ■ Japan ■ Greece · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Israel odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is New Zealand at 11%, followed by Japan at 10.5%, Greece at 9.4%. The market has $760.5K in total volume and $7 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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