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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Vietnam at 19.2%, followed by Mexico at 18.5%, Indonesia at 14.5%. The market has $396.5K in total volume and $10 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 19.2% | +1.0 pts | $9.6K |
| Mexico | 18.5% | +0.5 pts | $3.2K |
| Indonesia | 14.5% | +0.5 pts | $19.6K |
| South Korea | 13.2% | -0.4 pts | $60.6K |
| India | 11% | — | $70.9K |
| Israel | 10.5% | -2.0 pts | $685 |
| Canada | 10% | -1.0 pts | $22.8K |
| Russia | 10% | +0.5 pts | $2.3K |
| United Kingdom | 10% | — | $649 |
| Australia | 9.0% | — | $6.3K |
| Pakistan | 8.5% | — | $105.7K |
| South Africa | 8.0% | -1.0 pts | $598 |
| Argentina | 7.0% | -0.5 pts | $22.8K |
| Taiwan | 7.0% | -1.8 pts | $34.8K |
| European Union | 6.5% | — | $13.4K |
2 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $396.5K · 24h volume $10 · Liquidity $110.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Vietnam ■ Mexico ■ Indonesia · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Vietnam at 19.2%, followed by Mexico at 18.5%, Indonesia at 14.5%. The market has $396.5K in total volume and $10 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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