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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Pete Hegseth at 38%, followed by Nobody at 24.5%, Donald Trump at 19%. The market has $35.6K in total volume and $6.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 38% | +1.5 pts | $11.4K |
| Nobody | 24.5% | +2.0 pts | $9.7K |
| Donald Trump | 19% | -4.5 pts | $4.7K |
| Todd Blanche | 4.8% | -3.5 pts | $2.7K |
| Howard Lutnick | 4.5% | — | $1.7K |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 3.5% | -0.1 pts | $1.6K |
| Clarence Thomas | 1.5% | -0.6 pts | $1.5K |
| Samuel Alito | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $1.3K |
| JD Vance | 0.2% | +0.2 pts | $1.1K |
Total volume $35.6K · 24h volume $6.4K · Liquidity $72.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Pete Hegseth ■ Nobody ■ Donald Trump · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered.
In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual, among those with articles of impeachment passed against them, whose last name is first in alphabetical order.
In the event that none of the listed individuals is impeached by the United States House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Pete Hegseth at 38%, followed by Nobody at 24.5%, Donald Trump at 19%. The market has $35.6K in total volume and $6.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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