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Updated October 4, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: June 30, 2027
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Yashar at 57%, followed by Yisrael Beiteinu at 54.5%, The Democrats at 52.5%. The market has $24.5K in total volume and $5.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yashar | 57% | +0.5 pts | $735 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 54.5% | +3.0 pts | $1.1K |
| The Democrats | 52.5% | +4.0 pts | $817 |
| Together | 50% | +2.0 pts | $340 |
| Likud | 41.5% | -2.5 pts | $2.4K |
| Shas | 40.5% | +4.0 pts | $366 |
| United Torah Judaism | 40% | +3.0 pts | $675 |
| Amcha Yisrael | 37.5% | -2.5 pts | $344 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 37% | +2.0 pts | $386 |
| RZP-Zehut | 33.5% | +13.5 pts | $1.1K |
| New Economic Party / The Reservists | 26.5% | -6.0 pts | $756 |
| Ra'am | 17.5% | -1.5 pts | $10.8K |
| Noam | 5.6% | -2.7 pts | $454 |
| Blue and White | 5.5% | — | $408 |
| Joint List | 4.2% | -0.2 pts | $3.7K |
Total volume $24.5K · 24h volume $5.0K · Liquidity $390.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yashar ■ Yisrael Beiteinu ■ The Democrats · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Israel odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 4, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Yashar at 57%, followed by Yisrael Beiteinu at 54.5%, The Democrats at 52.5%. The market has $24.5K in total volume and $5.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is June 30, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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