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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Florida at 98.6%, followed by Texas at 98.3%, California at 96.7%. The market has $414.5K in total volume and $541 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 98.6% | — | $7.3K |
| Texas | 98.3% | — | $19.9K |
| California | 96.7% | -0.3 pts | $17.3K |
| Ohio | 96.7% | +0.9 pts | $7.4K |
| North Carolina | 96.2% | +0.4 pts | $12.0K |
| Louisiana | 92.5% | — | $16.8K |
| Utah | 90.5% | -0.5 pts | $95.7K |
| Alabama | 40% | -9.5 pts | $19.0K |
| Missouri | 9.2% | +2.1 pts | $14.3K |
| Virginia | 5.7% | -0.8 pts | $10.9K |
| Nebraska | 5.1% | +1.1 pts | $7.5K |
| Washington | 5.1% | +0.4 pts | $11.0K |
| Minnesota | 4.6% | +0.9 pts | $16.2K |
| Indiana | 4.5% | — | $34.6K |
| Maryland | 3.5% | +0.4 pts | $16.4K |
7 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $414.5K · 24h volume $541 · Liquidity $209.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Florida ■ Texas ■ California · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is:
- Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority;
- Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and
- In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections.
Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections.
Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2026 Midterms odds · World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Florida at 98.6%, followed by Texas at 98.3%, California at 96.7%. The market has $414.5K in total volume and $541 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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