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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 3, 2026
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is None at 98.4%, followed by AK at 1.4%. The market has $78.36M in total volume and $89.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| None | 98.4% | +1.8 pts | $10.43M |
| AK | 1.4% | -1.8 pts | $1.57M |
| IA (settled) | 0.0% | -10.8 pts | $3.50M |
| IA, KS (settled) | 0.0% | -3.0 pts | $3.34M |
| AK, IA, KS, MI, TX (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $2.63M |
| AK, IA (settled) | 0.0% | -2.1 pts | $1.07M |
| AK, IA, ME (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $880.4K |
| IA, KS, MI (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $863.6K |
| MI (settled) | 0.0% | -0.9 pts | $842.8K |
| IA, ME (settled) | 0.0% | -1.9 pts | $747.1K |
| AK, IA, ME, MI, TX (settled) | 0.0% | — | $744.8K |
| AK, KS, MI, TX (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $732.2K |
| AK, IA, KS (settled) | 0.0% | -1.5 pts | $703.4K |
| AK, IA, KS, MI (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $693.1K |
| AK, KS, ME, MI, TX (settled) | 0.0% | — | $679.2K |
113 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $78.36M · 24h volume $89.6K · Liquidity $281.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ None ■ AK · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027.
A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · 2026 Midterms odds · Senate Races odds · Politics odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is None at 98.4%, followed by AK at 1.4%. The market has $78.36M in total volume and $89.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 3, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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