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Updated September 26, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of September 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is DeepSeek at 30.5%, followed by Xiaomi at 20.5%, ByteDance at 16.5%. The market has $100.0K in total volume and $4.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek | 30.5% | — | $24.9K |
| Xiaomi | 20.5% | — | $31.7K |
| ByteDance | 16.5% | — | $36.1K |
| Moonshot AI | 11.5% | -23.0 pts | $7.4K |
Total volume $100.0K · 24h volume $4.2K · Liquidity $64.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ DeepSeek ■ Xiaomi ■ ByteDance · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list.
A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition.
Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify.
An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn.
For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify.
If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: China & Taiwan odds · AI odds · Big Tech odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is DeepSeek at 30.5%, followed by Xiaomi at 20.5%, ByteDance at 16.5%. The market has $100.0K in total volume and $4.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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