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Updated October 12, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Microsoft at 32.5%, followed by Perplexity at 16.5%, Amazon at 12.5%. The market has $22.7K in total volume and $5.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | 32.5% | — | $5.3K |
| Perplexity | 16.5% | -11.0 pts | $4.9K |
| Amazon | 12.5% | — | $2.3K |
| Anthropic | 9.5% | -9.0 pts | $10.1K |
Total volume $22.7K · 24h volume $5.6K · Liquidity $8.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Microsoft ■ Perplexity ■ Amazon · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user and carries out tasks, such as sending email and booking travel (https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/introducing-muse-personal-ai-agent/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company launches a Muse-like personal agent by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Muse-like personal agent is an AI agent that runs on a cloud computer provided by the listed company that is dedicated to the individual user and remains assigned to that user between tasks, can begin tasks on its own, such as on a schedule or when a new email arrives, and can take actions on websites or in the user's connected accounts, such as sending email or submitting forms.
Computing environments created for each task or session will not qualify. Products limited to a single type of task, such as coding, software development, email, or travel booking, offered only through an API, or sold only to businesses will not qualify.
A Muse-like personal agent must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. Availability limited to paid subscription plans or to certain countries will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Anthropic odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Microsoft at 32.5%, followed by Perplexity at 16.5%, Amazon at 12.5%. The market has $22.7K in total volume and $5.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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