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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Saudi Arabia at 15.5%, followed by Russia at 11%, China at 9.5%. The market has $99.9K in total volume and $15.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 15.5% | -3.0 pts | $13.9K |
| Russia | 11% | +2.5 pts | $17.2K |
| China | 9.5% | -0.5 pts | $9.1K |
| Anthropic | 3.9% | -0.4 pts | $14.5K |
| Meta | 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $14.2K |
| SpaceXAI / Elon Musk | 3.6% | +0.1 pts | $8.7K |
| Israel | 3.2% | +0.6 pts | $1.5K |
| North Korea | 2.5% | — | $1.7K |
| Iran | 2.3% | -2.2 pts | $5.1K |
| 1.6% | -0.2 pts | $14.0K |
Total volume $99.9K · 24h volume $15.4K · Liquidity $162.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Saudi Arabia ■ Russia ■ China · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify.
For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual.
A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify.
Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI.
Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Supreme Court odds · Middle East odds · AI odds · OpenAI odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Saudi Arabia at 15.5%, followed by Russia at 11%, China at 9.5%. The market has $99.9K in total volume and $15.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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