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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Roger Stone at 26.5%, followed by Donald Brodie at 21.5%, Stefan Brodie at 19.5%. The market has $478.0K in total volume and $170 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Stone | 26.5% | — | $8.8K |
| Donald Brodie | 21.5% | — | $6.3K |
| Stefan Brodie | 19.5% | — | $2.8K |
| Ryan Salame | 19% | +2.0 pts | $32.3K |
| Matt Gaetz | 17% | +1.0 pts | $7.0K |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 14.5% | — | $17.6K |
| Daniel Penny | 10.5% | — | $508 |
| Eric Adams | 8.5% | — | $1.1K |
| Young Thug | 6.8% | +0.1 pts | $4.7K |
| Steve Bannon | 5.8% | -0.1 pts | $8.9K |
| Julian Assange | 5.7% | -0.1 pts | $4.3K |
| Bob Menendez | 5.7% | -0.1 pts | $295 |
| Joe Exotic | 5.5% | — | $5.6K |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 4.9% | +0.1 pts | $3.6K |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 4.7% | +0.2 pts | $25.5K |
13 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $478.0K · 24h volume $170 · Liquidity $301.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Roger Stone ■ Donald Brodie ■ Stefan Brodie · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Roger Stone at 26.5%, followed by Donald Brodie at 21.5%, Stefan Brodie at 19.5%. The market has $478.0K in total volume and $170 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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