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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate at 62%, followed by No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate at 31.9%, Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate at 3.2%. The market has $117.5K in total volume and $20.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 62% | +0.1 pts | $2.3K |
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 31.9% | -0.1 pts | $20.7K |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | 3.2% | -0.4 pts | $52.9K |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | 2.5% | -0.2 pts | $41.5K |
Total volume $117.5K · 24h volume $20.5K · Liquidity $1.20M. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate ■ No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate ■ Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate at 62%, followed by No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate at 31.9%, Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate at 3.2%. The market has $117.5K in total volume and $20.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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