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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Oil ≥ $80; D Senate at 60.6%, followed by Oil ≥ $80; R Senate at 31.1%, Oil < $80; D Senate at 5.1%. The market has $368.7K in total volume and $176.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 60.6% | +5.9 pts | $37.8K |
| Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 31.1% | — | $16.5K |
| Oil < $80; D Senate | 5.1% | -2.5 pts | $170.9K |
| Oil < $80; R Senate | 4.5% | -3.2 pts | $143.5K |
Total volume $368.7K · 24h volume $176.3K · Liquidity $1.14M. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Oil ≥ $80; D Senate ■ Oil ≥ $80; R Senate ■ Oil < $80; D Senate · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Oil < $80; R Senate" if oil is less than $80 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
This market will resolve to "Oil < $80; D Senate" if oil is less than $80 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $80; R Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $80 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $80; D Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $80 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
Oil price: The oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the November 2, 2026 trading day.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the most recent prior trading day.
For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours).
The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month.
Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry.
For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would …
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2026 Midterms odds · Senate Races odds · Oil & Commodities odds · Politics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Oil ≥ $80; D Senate at 60.6%, followed by Oil ≥ $80; R Senate at 31.1%, Oil < $80; D Senate at 5.1%. The market has $368.7K in total volume and $176.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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