Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Odds: Yes 4.4%

Updated September 26, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027

Current odds

Total volume $312.6K · 24h volume $9.3K · Liquidity $93.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.

30-day price history

How this market resolves

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Volume
Yes	4.4%	-2.5 pts	$312.6K
No	95.6%	+2.5 pts	—

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

As of September 26, 2026 at 02:04 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.4% (No 95.6%), with $312.6K traded in total and $9.3K in the last 24 hours.

When does the Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026 market end?

The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.

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Polymarket View, “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? — Polymarket odds”, September 26, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-alberta-vote-for-independence-in-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? — Polymarket Odds