Home › Polymarket odds › Geopolitics & World
Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 17% (No 83%), with $55.9K traded in total and $834 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | -8.0 pts | $55.9K |
| No | 83% | +8.0 pts | — |
Total volume $55.9K · 24h volume $834 · Liquidity $1.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Israel odds · Middle East odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 17% (No 83%), with $55.9K traded in total and $834 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/will-any-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-december-31/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-any-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-december-31/">Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/will-any-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-december-31.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? — Polymarket odds”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-any-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-december-31/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-any-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-december-31/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-any-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-december-31/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/will-any-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-december-31.svg" alt="Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog