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Updated September 26, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2029
As of September 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2028 at 30.5%, followed by December 31, 2027 at 12.5%, December 31, 2026 at 5.5%. The market has $21.2K in total volume and $5.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2028 | 30.5% | -0.5 pts | $4.0K |
| December 31, 2027 | 12.5% | -1.0 pts | $9.9K |
| December 31, 2026 | 5.5% | — | $7.2K |
Total volume $21.2K · 24h volume $5.7K · Liquidity $15.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ December 31, 2028 ■ December 31, 2027 ■ December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered.
A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 26, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2028 at 30.5%, followed by December 31, 2027 at 12.5%, December 31, 2026 at 5.5%. The market has $21.2K in total volume and $5.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2029. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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