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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 20%. The market has $98.8K in total volume and $2.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 20% | +1.5 pts | $9.0K |
| By April 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $64.6K |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.9 pts | $12.8K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $12.5K |
Total volume $98.8K · 24h volume $2.3K · Liquidity $10.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Colombian President Gustavo Petro by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 20%. The market has $98.8K in total volume and $2.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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