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Updated September 26, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 26, 2026 at 02:04 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 13% (No 87%), with $123.6K traded in total and $634 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | -2.0 pts | $123.6K |
| No | 87% | +2.0 pts | — |
Total volume $123.6K · 24h volume $634 · Liquidity $970. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Pop Culture odds
As of September 26, 2026 at 02:04 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 13% (No 87%), with $123.6K traded in total and $634 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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