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Updated October 8, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 8, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 11.5% (No 88.5%), with $82.5K traded in total and $1.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11.5% | -5.0 pts | $82.5K |
| No | 88.5% | +5.0 pts | — |
Total volume $82.5K · 24h volume $1.5K · Liquidity $2.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 8, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 11.5% (No 88.5%), with $82.5K traded in total and $1.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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