Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 3.0% (No 97%), with $11.77M traded in total and $109 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.0% | -0.3 pts | $11.77M |
| No | 97% | +0.3 pts | — |
Total volume $11.77M · 24h volume $109 · Liquidity $95.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 3.0% (No 97%), with $11.77M traded in total and $109 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026/">Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? — Polymarket odds”, September 24, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026.svg" alt="Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog