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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 5.5%, followed by By September 30, 2026 at 0.5%. The market has $5.48M in total volume and $21.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 5.5% | — | $373.9K |
| By September 30, 2026 | 0.5% | +0.1 pts | $1.9K |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $3.65M |
| By December 31, 2025 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $1.45M |
Total volume $5.48M · 24h volume $21.6K · Liquidity $81.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 ■ By September 30, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 5.5%, followed by By September 30, 2026 at 0.5%. The market has $5.48M in total volume and $21.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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