Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Odds: Yes 3.5%

Updated October 11, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027

Current odds

Total volume $152.8K · 24h volume $2.2K · Liquidity $72.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.

30-day price history

How this market resolves

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Volume
Yes	3.5%	+0.4 pts	$152.8K
No	96.5%	-0.4 pts	—

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

As of October 11, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 3.5% (No 96.5%), with $152.8K traded in total and $2.2K in the last 24 hours.

When does the Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026 market end?

The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.

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Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? — Polymarket Odds