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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 5.0% (No 95%), with $123.6K traded in total and $7.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.0% | -1.0 pts | $123.6K |
| No | 95% | +1.0 pts | — |
Total volume $123.6K · 24h volume $7.8K · Liquidity $14.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 5.0% (No 95%), with $123.6K traded in total and $7.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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