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Updated October 12, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 12, 2026
As of October 12, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 280M at 72.5%, followed by 270M at 8.5%, 260M at 3.9%. The market has $22.3K in total volume and $3.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 280M | 72.5% | +7.5 pts | $14.0K |
| 270M | 8.5% | +1.0 pts | $4.5K |
| 260M | 3.9% | +0.5 pts | $2.2K |
| 250M | 2.9% | -0.1 pts | $259 |
| 240M | 2.1% | +0.2 pts | $1.3K |
Total volume $22.3K · 24h volume $3.6K · Liquidity $14.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 280M ■ 270M ■ 260M · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before October 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before October 30, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.
If data has not been released for the final week ending on October 30, 2026, by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.
Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 12, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 280M at 72.5%, followed by 270M at 8.5%, 260M at 3.9%. The market has $22.3K in total volume and $3.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 12, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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