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Updated September 27, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: March 1, 2027
As of September 27, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 1.2m at 68.5%, followed by 1.3m at 20.5%, 1.5m at 9.2%. The market has $186.9K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1m (settled) | 100% | +3.2 pts | $39.1K |
| 1.1m (settled) | 100% | +0.1 pts | $20.6K |
| 1.2m | 68.5% | +1.0 pts | $11.1K |
| 1.3m | 20.5% | -0.5 pts | $8.0K |
| 1.5m | 9.2% | — | $10.6K |
| 1.4m | 7.0% | +0.7 pts | $19.9K |
| 2m | 3.5% | -0.1 pts | $16.5K |
| 1.7m | 2.8% | -0.3 pts | $61.1K |
Total volume $186.9K · 24h volume $1.2K · Liquidity $5.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 1.2m ■ 1.3m ■ 1.5m · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 27, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 1.2m at 68.5%, followed by 1.3m at 20.5%, 1.5m at 9.2%. The market has $186.9K in total volume and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is March 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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