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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 99.9%+, followed by By September 30 at 99.9%+, By September 24 at 99.9%+. The market has $3.12M in total volume and $320.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 99.9%+ | +0.1 pts | $1.13M |
| By September 30 | 99.9%+ | +0.4 pts | $806.0K |
| By September 24 | 99.9%+ | +0.4 pts | $385.0K |
| By October 31 | 99.9%+ | +0.1 pts | $171.8K |
| By September 23 | 99.8% | +0.5 pts | $626.2K |
| By September 15 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $2.1K |
Total volume $3.12M · 24h volume $320.0K · Liquidity $441.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 ■ By September 24 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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If Xi Jinping visits the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · China & Taiwan odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 99.9%+, followed by By September 30 at 99.9%+, By September 24 at 99.9%+. The market has $3.12M in total volume and $320.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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