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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 14.5% (No 85.5%), with $215.7K traded in total and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14.5% | — | $215.7K |
| No | 85.5% | — | — |
Total volume $215.7K · 24h volume $1.3K · Liquidity $23.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: China & Taiwan odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 14.5% (No 85.5%), with $215.7K traded in total and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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