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Under a simple volatility model, the chance that a coin ends above a price depends on how far away that price is, how many days are left and how volatile the coin is. With Bitcoin at about $84,500 (the middle of Polymarket's next daily price ladder) and 41% annual volatility, the model gives about 17% odds of it ending above $89,000 in 7 days. Polymarket's daily Bitcoin ladder for September 25 currently implies about 41% annualised volatility (from its 50% price range), which the calculator uses as the default.
Zero-drift lognormal model: real crypto prices jump more often than it assumes, so treat far-away prices with care.
The model assumes the log of the price moves randomly with the volatility you enter and no trend. The chance of ending above a target is N(d₂), with d₂ = (ln(price / target) − σ²t / 2) / (σ√t), where σ is annual volatility and t the time in years; a range is the difference of two such chances.
Polymarket's traders price the same questions directly every day: compare the model with the market on Bitcoin price prediction, Ethereum price prediction and the other coins, and see how those markets have scored on their accuracy page.
Put real prices into the calculator: every page below shows current odds, 24-hour moves and the market rules.
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With a volatility model: work out how many standard deviations the target is from today's price over the time left, then read the chance off the normal curve. The calculator does this with a zero-drift lognormal model.
The calculator starts from the volatility implied by Polymarket's own daily Bitcoin ladder, refreshed twice a day. You can also use an options-implied or historical figure; higher volatility spreads the outcomes wider.
Traders know about scheduled events, flows and jump risk that a simple model ignores, and prices also carry fees and the bid-ask spread. A gap between the two is a question, not automatically an opportunity.
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