Home › Polymarket odds › Polymarket vs Kalshi
Updated September 23, 2026 · public Polymarket and Kalshi data · refreshed twice a day
As of September 23, 2026, we matched 9 events listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi. The widest gap: Which party wins the 2028 presidential election — Democrats is 66% on Polymarket and 58.5% on Kalshi. Across 39 matched outcomes the average gap is 1.1 percentage points. Both charge takers a fee that peaks at 50¢; makers pay nothing on Polymarket.
Probabilities are the midpoint between the best bid and ask on each exchange (last trade when a side is empty). Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 50 bp or more | 0.2% | 1.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Cut 25 bp | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 pts |
| No change | 31.5% | 31.5% | 0 |
| Hike 25 bp | 67.5% | 69.5% | -2.0 pts |
| Hike 50 bp or more | 0.8% | 1.5% | -0.8 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXFEDDECISION-26OCT.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 50 bp or more | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 pts |
| Cut 25 bp | 1.1% | 1.5% | -0.3 pts |
| No change | 27.5% | 27.5% | 0 |
| Hike 25 bp | 70.5% | 70.5% | 0 |
| Hike 50 bp or more | 1.9% | 1.5% | +0.5 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXFEDDECISION-26DEC.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 92.5% | 91.1% | +1.4 pts |
| Republicans | 7.5% | 8.8% | -1.2 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event CONTROLH-2026.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 65.5% | 64.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Republicans | 34.5% | 36.5% | -2.0 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event CONTROLS-2026.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 66% | 58.5% | +7.5 pts |
| Republicans | 34.5% | 41.5% | -7.0 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXPRESPARTY-2028.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 58.9% | 57.5% | +1.4 pts |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 40.5% | 43.5% | -3.0 pts |
| Augusto Cury | <0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Renan Santos | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0 |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Fernando Haddad | <0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | <0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | <0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Ratinho Júnior | <0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Aldo Rebelo | <0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXBRPRES-26.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 12.5% | 12.5% | 0 |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 8.0% | 8.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.5% | 7.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.6% | 7.5% | +0.1 pts |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6.2% | 6.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5.7% | 6.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4.6% | 5.5% | -0.9 pts |
| New England Patriots | 3.9% | 3.5% | +0.3 pts |
| Denver Broncos | 3.8% | 3.5% | +0.2 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXSB-27.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 94.8% | 92.5% | +2.2 pts |
| OpenAI | 5.2% | 8.5% | -3.2 pts |
See the market on Polymarket. Kalshi event KXOAIANTH-40.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8.5% | 5.5% | +3.0 pts |
⚠️ The rules differ: Polymarket resolves Yes on two negative GDP quarters or an NBER recession call; Kalshi counts only two consecutive negative GDP quarters.
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXRECSSNBER-26.
| Polymarket (polymarket.com) | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Oversight | International exchange; a separate US app launched in December 2025 after CFTC approval (CoinDesk) | US exchange regulated by the CFTC |
| Money | USDC stablecoin | US dollars |
| Taker fee | shares × rate × p × (1 − p); rate by category, 0–7% (live rates) | 0.07 × contracts × P × (1 − P), rounded up to the next cent (general rate) |
| Maker fee | None, plus a rebate share | A smaller fee on some markets |
| US users | Close-only on polymarket.com (details) | Open to US residents |
For eligibility, funding, custody and resolution differences in depth, read our full Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison.
Fee sources: Polymarket fees, Kalshi fee schedule (July 2026 update). Check both before trading; schedules change.
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC and trades in US dollars. Polymarket's main exchange, polymarket.com, is international, settles in the USDC stablecoin and is close-only for US users; Polymarket also launched a separate CFTC-approved US app in December 2025.
They have different traders, fees, order books and sometimes different resolution rules. A few points of difference is common; larger gaps usually close as traders move money, but fees, spreads and access rules mean a gap is not free money.
For 100 shares bought as a taker at 50¢, Polymarket's 4% politics rate costs $1.00 and Kalshi's general fee $1.75; at 90¢ it is $0.36 versus $0.63. Makers pay nothing on Polymarket; on Kalshi, makers pay a smaller fee on some markets.
The comparison is free as JSON: /api/v1/compare/polymarket-kalshi.json (CC BY 4.0 — credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). More in the developer docs.
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