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Updated September 25, 2026 · facts checked against the dated sources listed below
Since late 2025, CNN, CNBC and the publisher of The Wall Street Journal have announced deals to bring prediction-market odds into their coverage, so reporters and researchers meet these numbers whether or not they trade. Used well, a price is a dated, checkable measure of what traders expected; used carelessly, it turns a thin market or a loosely worded question into a headline.
A share that pays $1 if something happens and trades at 30¢ tells you that traders, at that moment, put the chance near 30%. Report it that way: the venue, the outcome, the number and the time. Prices can move within minutes. Polymarket's price for a Democratic win in Iowa jumped from 8.5¢ at 23:00 UTC to 18¢ five minutes later on November 2, 2024, and that market later resolved No.
Note which price you used, too. Polymarket's displayed chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask, or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents, so in a quiet market the headline number can be an old trade.
See also: What moves Polymarket prices · How to read Polymarket odds
Look at three things on the market page: the spread between the best bid and ask, the amount traded in the last 24 hours, and the shares resting near the price. A tight spread with steady trading takes more money to move; a wide spread with little trading can shift on a single order. Polymarket's order book has no size limits, but the company notes there is no guarantee that a trade of a given size can happen without moving the price, or at all.
See also: How to read a Polymarket order book · How to spot a thin order book
Each market pays on its written rules and named source, which can be narrower or wider than its title. Polymarket's US recession by end of 2026? counts a recession announcement by the National Bureau of Economic Research as well as two negative GDP quarters; Kalshi's recession market counts only the GDP quarters. When the definition matters to the story, say so: traders put a 10% chance on a recession as Polymarket defines it, not on a recession in general.
Kalshi's help center adds a caution that applies on every exchange: a market remaining open or undetermined is no indication either way of whether its criteria have been met.
See also: How Polymarket markets resolve · How to compare Polymarket and Kalshi odds
A small order can move a thin market, and a price can reflect information the public does not have. On April 23, 2026 the CFTC charged a US Army service member with insider trading, alleging that he used classified information to buy more than 436,000 Yes shares in Polymarket's Maduro Out by January 31, 2026? market between December 30, 2025 and January 2, 2026, for more than $404,000 in profit; the agency called it its first insider trading case involving event contracts. Polymarket's integrity rules ban insider trading, spoofing and wash trading, a list that doubles as a checklist of risks.
Treat a sudden move in a quiet market as a question, not a finding: check whether news explains it, whether volume came with it, and whether the same question moved on another exchange.
See also: Polymarket whale trades · Polymarket vs Kalshi odds today
Three dated examples show where readers now meet these numbers. On December 2, 2025, Kalshi announced it would become CNN's official prediction markets partner, with its data used across CNN programming under chief data analyst Harry Enten and a Kalshi-powered ticker during segments that feature it. On December 4, 2025, CNBC and Kalshi announced a multi-year exclusive deal to bring Kalshi data into programs such as Squawk Box and Fast Money from 2026. On January 7, 2026, Polymarket and Dow Jones said Polymarket data would appear in dedicated modules across The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, MarketWatch and Investor's Business Daily, in select print placements and in an earnings calendar.
Each deal pairs a newsroom with one exchange, so a number shown under one of these deals comes from that partner's market alone. If the exact figure matters, check the other exchange and say which one you quote.
See also: Polymarket and Kalshi price gaps
Give the outcome, the price as a percentage, the venue and a timestamp, and link to a page that shows that snapshot. Our guide to citing Polymarket odds has a format you can copy, and every data page on this site carries a citation box. The odds and datasets on this site are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with credit and a link.
See also: How to cite Polymarket odds · Free Polymarket data
Quote them as the chance traders were paying for at a stated time, on a named exchange. They are not a forecast made by the exchange or by your newsroom.
Check the spread, the last 24 hours of trading and the shares near the price. If the spread is wider than 10 cents, Polymarket shows the last trade rather than a midpoint, so the number may be stale.
Cite the one you used and say when. For figures that matter, check both; this site's Polymarket vs Kalshi pages put matched events side by side.
They can be pushed, especially in thin markets, and trading on inside information has led to charges. Treat an unexplained jump as something to report on, not as evidence on its own.
Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All guides · How market types work · Glossary · Polymarket odds today