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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 13%, followed by By September 30 at 9.6%. The market has $41.8K in total volume and $8.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31 | 13% | -8.5 pts | $2.1K |
| By September 30 | 9.6% | +6.0 pts | $11.4K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -4.2 pts | $28.3K |
Total volume $41.8K · 24h volume $8.7K · Liquidity $27.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 13%, followed by By September 30 at 9.6%. The market has $41.8K in total volume and $8.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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