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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 87.5% (No 12.5%), with $27.9K traded in total and $4.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 87.5% | +9.0 pts | $27.9K |
| No | 12.5% | -9.0 pts | — |
Total volume $27.9K · 24h volume $4.9K · Liquidity $18.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic's closing share price on its first day of trading is above its IPO offer price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The official closing price as listed by the primary exchange will be considered the closing share price.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by Anthropic to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If no Anthropic IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50.
Resolution will be based on the final prospectus for the IPO price and the primary exchange’s official listing page for the closing price. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 87.5% (No 12.5%), with $27.9K traded in total and $4.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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