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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 6.5%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 3.8%. The market has $98.7K in total volume and $496 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By June 30, 2027 | 6.5% | — | $81.2K |
| By December 31, 2026 | 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $17.5K |
Total volume $98.7K · 24h volume $496 · Liquidity $202.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By June 30, 2027 ■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required.
Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Anthropic odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 6.5%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 3.8%. The market has $98.7K in total volume and $496 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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