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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is <1600.00 at 45.5%, followed by 1600.00–1699.99 at 27%, 1800.00–1899.99 at 19%. The market has $24.2K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| <1600.00 | 45.5% | -1.5 pts | $2.9K |
| 1600.00–1699.99 | 27% | +0.5 pts | $2.3K |
| 1800.00–1899.99 | 19% | +3.9 pts | $2.0K |
| 2000.00+ | 13.5% | +4.5 pts | $2.5K |
| 1700.00–1799.99 | 9.1% | +0.1 pts | $2.5K |
| 1900.00–1999.99 | 6.7% | +0.1 pts | $11.9K |
Total volume $24.2K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $3.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ <1600.00 ■ 1600.00–1699.99 ■ 1800.00–1899.99 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds · Geopolitics odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is <1600.00 at 45.5%, followed by 1600.00–1699.99 at 27%, 1800.00–1899.99 at 19%. The market has $24.2K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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