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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 4.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.4%. The market has $8.46M in total volume and $138 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 4.5% | — | $234.8K |
| By September 30 | 0.4% | -0.2 pts | $265.5K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | +0.1 pts | $3.52M |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $2.15M |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $1.54M |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $669.3K |
| By April 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $75.0K |
Total volume $8.46M · 24h volume $138 · Liquidity $94.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Israel odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 4.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.4%. The market has $8.46M in total volume and $138 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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