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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 4, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 39%+ at 87.5%, followed by 36-39% at 6.9%, <30% at 1.7%. The market has $85.8K in total volume and $8.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39%+ | 87.5% | +1.0 pts | $54.3K |
| 36-39% | 6.9% | -0.6 pts | $12.0K |
| <30% | 1.7% | +0.1 pts | $6.7K |
| 33-36% | 1.4% | +0.2 pts | $6.5K |
| 30-33% | 0.7% | — | $6.2K |
Total volume $85.8K · 24h volume $8.1K · Liquidity $150.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 39%+ ■ 36-39% ■ <30% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 39%+ at 87.5%, followed by 36-39% at 6.9%, <30% at 1.7%. The market has $85.8K in total volume and $8.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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