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Updated September 26, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of September 26, 2026 at 02:04 UTC, the leading outcome is Aisha Wahab at 78.5%, followed by Melissa Hernandez at 19.6%. The market has $22.9K in total volume and $354 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aisha Wahab | 78.5% | — | $13.5K |
| Melissa Hernandez | 19.6% | -1.4 pts | $9.4K |
Total volume $22.9K · 24h volume $354 · Liquidity $25.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Aisha Wahab ■ Melissa Hernandez · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 26, 2026 at 02:04 UTC, the leading outcome is Aisha Wahab at 78.5%, followed by Melissa Hernandez at 19.6%. The market has $22.9K in total volume and $354 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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