Home › Polymarket odds › 2026 Midterms › House forecast
Updated November 9, 2026 at 02:01 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Across 21 districts with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 8 and Republicans in 13; the most likely Republican House seat count is 175-179 (88.3%).
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| Below 170 | <0.1% | |
| 170-174 | 7.6% | |
| 175-179 | 88.3% | |
| 180-184 | <0.1% |
Likely: 4 · Safe: 17. Ratings come from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-03 | Raymond Smith Jr. 85.2% | Greg Murphy 14.9% | Likely Democrat | $1.27M |
| AK-AL | Democrat <0.1% | Republican 91.1% | Likely Republican | $177.3K |
| LA-06 | Democrat 8.2% | Republican 92.3% | Likely Republican | $86.8K |
| LA-05 | Democrat 5.8% | Republican 94.2% | Likely Republican | $31.1K |
| TN-04 | Victoria Broderick 95.3% | Scott DesJarlais 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $178.0K |
| NC-05 | Chuck Hubbard 96.6% | Virginia Foxx 3.0% | Safe Democrat | $143.3K |
| MN-01 | Jake Johnson 96.7% | Brad Finstad 3.3% | Safe Democrat | $132.2K |
| CA-23 | Tessa Lynn Hodge 2.7% | Jay Obernolte 97.3% | Safe Republican | $286.2K |
| WA-05 | Carmela Conroy 1.9% | Michael Baumgartner 97.5% | Safe Republican | $168.0K |
| FL-27 | Eliott Rodriguez 2.1% | María Elvira Salazar 97.9% | Safe Republican | $188.9K |
| CA-04 | Democrat 98% | Republican 0.1% | Safe Democrat | $56.3K |
| AZ-02 | Jonathan Nez 1.0% | Eli Crane 98.4% | Safe Republican | $342.6K |
| FL-07 | Bale Dalton 0.9% | Ryan Elijah 98.8% | Safe Republican | $149.3K |
| FL-09 | Darren Soto 99.1% | Dan Green 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $176.4K |
| NC-07 | Kimberly Hardy 0.7% | David Rouzer 99.1% | Safe Republican | $65.4K |
| CO-04 | Eileen Laubacher 99.2% | Lauren Boebert 0.9% | Safe Democrat | $162.6K |
| SC-02 | Zyon Khalifa 0.8% | Joe Wilson 99.2% | Safe Republican | $101.9K |
| FL-26 | Nicole Locklin 0.7% | Mario Díaz-Balart 99.2% | Safe Republican | $183.0K |
| ME-02 | Matthew Dunlap 0.4% | Paul LePage 99.5% | Safe Republican | $225.6K |
| NC-10 | Ashley Bell 0.2% | Pat Harrigan 99.6% | Safe Republican | $20.1K |
| CA-07 | Democrat 99.9%+ | Republican 0.1% | Safe Democrat | $16.1K |
Independent and third-party candidates priced at 10% or more: SC-02 (B 50%); SC-02 (A 49.5%); ME-02 (A 50%); ME-02 (B 50%); ME-02 (C 50%); ME-02 (D 50%); ME-02 (E 50%).
Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls and not quotes you can trade at; the two sides can add up to slightly more or less than 100%. Educational information, not betting advice.
More: 2026 midterm forecast (all chambers) · Senate forecast · Governor forecast · 2026 elections by state · poll lead to win probability calculator · All house markets · 2026 midterms odds · 2026 midterms guide · Odds on people
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “2026 House forecast from Polymarket odds”, November 9, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/house-forecast-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Across 21 districts with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 8 and Republicans in 13; the most likely Republican House seat count is 175-179 (88.3%).
No race is a toss-up right now: every favourite is priced at 60% or more.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. They are market prices, not polls or a model, and they move with every trade.
Our accuracy study checks resolved Polymarket markets against the price a week before close: polymarkettrader.com/odds/accuracy/.
Free to use on your site with the source link included (CC BY 4.0); it updates twice a day:
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/house-map-2026/" width="100%" height="470" style="border:0;max-width:600px" loading="lazy" title="2026 House map from Polymarket odds"></iframe>
Free JSON: /api/v1/midterms-2026.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.