Home › Polymarket odds › 2026 Midterms › House forecast
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket gives the Democratic Party a 92.5% chance to win the House in 2026 (as of September 24, 2026). Across 434 districts with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 233 and Republicans in 201; the closest: MI-04 (Bill Huizenga 52.5%), FL-22 (Pia Dandiya 53.5%), IA-02 (Lindsay James 54%), MI-07 (William Lawrence 56.5%); the most likely Republican House seat count is Below 190 (29%).
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 92.5% | |
| Republican Party | 7.5% |
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| Below 190 | 29% | |
| 190-194 | 14.5% | |
| 195-199 | 17.5% | |
| 200-204 | 10.8% | |
| 205-209 | 11.8% | |
| 210-214 | 9.7% | |
| 215-219 | 6.6% | |
| 220-224 | 4.9% | |
| 225-229 | 1.8% | |
| 230+ | 1.9% |
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats Sweep | 63.5% | |
| D Senate, R House | 1.1% | |
| R Senate, D House | 30.5% | |
| Republicans Sweep | 7.5% |
Toss-up: 5 · Lean: 37 · Likely: 176 · Safe: 216. Ratings come from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI-04 | Sean McCann 48.5% | Bill Huizenga 52.5% | Toss-up | $8.6K |
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya 53.5% | Casey Askar 45.5% | Toss-up | $47.6K |
| IA-02 | Lindsay James 54% | Joe Mitchell 45% | Toss-up | $21.7K |
| MI-07 | William Lawrence 56.5% | Tom Barrett 43.5% | Toss-up | $23.7K |
| VA-01 | Shannon Taylor 41.5% | Rob Wittman 58.5% | Toss-up | $29.1K |
| NC-11 | Jamie Ager 61.5% | Jennifer Balkcom 36.5% | Lean Democrat | $15.9K |
| TX-23 | Katy Padilla Stout 39.5% | Brandon Herrera 61.5% | Lean Republican | $63.3K |
| ME-02 | Matthew Dunlap 34.5% | Paul LePage 62% | Lean Republican | $16.8K |
| CO-03 | Dwayne Romero 37.5% | Jeff Hurd 62.5% | Lean Republican | $11.9K |
| NC-01 | Don Davis 62.5% | Laurie Buckhout 37.5% | Lean Democrat | $2.2K |
| PA-01 | Bob Harvie 37.5% | Brian Fitzpatrick 62.5% | Lean Republican | $12.2K |
| MI-10 | Christina Hines 65.5% | Mike Bouchard 32.5% | Lean Democrat | $8.1K |
| PA-08 | Paige Cognetti 65.5% | Rob Bresnahan 34.5% | Lean Democrat | $9.1K |
| AZ-02 | Jonathan Nez 33.5% | Eli Crane 66.5% | Lean Republican | $4.8K |
| FL-07 | Bale Dalton 33.5% | Ryan Elijah 66.5% | Lean Republican | $25.4K |
| FL-27 | Eliott Rodriguez 34.5% | María Elvira Salazar 66.5% | Lean Republican | $29.3K |
| NY-17 | Cait Conley 66.5% | Mike Lawler 31.5% | Lean Democrat | $20.0K |
| WI-01 | Mitchell Berman 34.5% | Bryan Steil 66.5% | Lean Republican | $10.7K |
| FL-13 | Leela Gray 29.5% | Anna Paulina Luna 67.5% | Lean Republican | $11.6K |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor 67.5% | Mike Beltran 32% | Lean Democrat | $49.4K |
| MT-01 | Sam Forstag 32.5% | Aaron Flint 67.5% | Lean Republican | $26.9K |
| TX-35 | Johnny Garcia 68% | Carlos De La Cruz 32.5% | Lean Democrat | $28.6K |
| FL-09 | Darren Soto 31.5% | Dan Green 68.5% | Lean Republican | $22.0K |
| FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz 68.5% | Scott Singer 32.5% | Lean Democrat | $30.5K |
| AL-02 | Shomari Figures 30.5% | Rhett Marques 69.5% | Lean Republican | $60.1K |
| CO-04 | Eileen Laubacher 29.5% | Lauren Boebert 69.5% | Lean Republican | $39.1K |
| CO-05 | Jessica Killin 31.5% | Jeff Crank 69.5% | Lean Republican | $14.7K |
| SC-01 | Nancy Lacore 29.5% | Jenny Costa Honeycutt 69.5% | Lean Republican | $55.7K |
| WI-03 | Rebecca Cooke 70.5% | Derrick Van Orden 28.5% | Lean Democrat | $6.5K |
| KY-06 | Zach Dembo 25.5% | Ralph Alvarado 73.5% | Lean Republican | $36.6K |
| MO-02 | Fred Wellman 26.5% | Ann Wagner 73.5% | Lean Republican | $27.3K |
| OH-09 | Marcy Kaptur 73.5% | Derek Merrin 25.5% | Lean Democrat | $34.2K |
| NV-02 | Teresa Benitez-Thompson 21.5% | David Flippo 74.5% | Lean Republican | $31.4K |
| NC-09 | Richard Ojeda 23.5% | Richard Hudson 75.5% | Lean Republican | $29.6K |
| MN-01 | Jake Johnson 23% | Brad Finstad 76% | Lean Republican | $47.4K |
| TX-15 | Bobby Pulido 76% | Monica De La Cruz 24% | Lean Democrat | $28.2K |
| AZ-01 | Amish Shah 76.5% | Jay Feely 23.5% | Lean Democrat | $62.4K |
| IA-03 | Sarah Trone Garriott 76.5% | Zach Nunn 23% | Lean Democrat | $11.0K |
| OH-15 | Don Leonard 23.5% | Mike Carey 76.5% | Lean Republican | $15.9K |
| NY-21 | Blake Gendebien 20.5% | Anthony Constantino 77.5% | Lean Republican | $71.2K |
| PA-07 | Bob Brooks 79.5% | Ryan Mackenzie 20.5% | Lean Democrat | $32.3K |
| PA-10 | Janelle Stelson 79.5% | Scott Perry 21% | Lean Democrat | $6.2K |
| CO-08 | Manny Rutinel 80.5% | Gabe Evans 16.5% | Likely Democrat | $18.2K |
| OH-07 | Brian Poindexter 80.5% | Max Miller 20.5% | Likely Democrat | $60.2K |
| VA-05 | Tom Perriello 20.5% | John McGuire 80.5% | Likely Republican | $82.4K |
| WA-05 | Carmela Conroy 18.4% | Michael Baumgartner 80.5% | Likely Republican | $57.1K |
| TX-09 | Leticia Gutierrez 17.5% | Alex Mealer 81% | Likely Republican | $29.7K |
| AR-02 | Chris Jones 16.5% | French Hill 81.5% | Likely Republican | $24.4K |
| IA-01 | Christina Bohannan 81.5% | Mariannette Miller-Meeks 19.5% | Likely Democrat | $31.7K |
| TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez 81.5% | Eric Flores 16% | Likely Democrat | $9.8K |
| VA-02 | Elaine Luria 81.5% | Jen Kiggans 18.5% | Likely Democrat | $43.8K |
| AZ-06 | JoAnna Mendoza 82.5% | Juan Ciscomani 17.5% | Likely Democrat | $11.9K |
| NE-01 | Chris Backemeyer 18.5% | Mike Flood 82.5% | Likely Republican | $40.9K |
| NY-01 | Chris Gallant 17% | Nick LaLota 82.5% | Likely Republican | $45.6K |
| OH-10 | Kristina Knickerbocker 16.5% | Mike Turner 82.5% | Likely Republican | $47.6K |
| FL-16 | Kelly Kirschner 17.5% | Sydney Gruters 83.5% | Likely Republican | $26.7K |
| IN-05 | J. D. Ford 14.5% | Victoria Spartz 83.5% | Likely Republican | $28.9K |
| NC-07 | Kimberly Hardy 14.5% | David Rouzer 83.5% | Likely Republican | $29.0K |
| NC-13 | Paul Barringer 15.5% | Brad Knott 83.5% | Likely Republican | $9.6K |
| NJ-02 | Zack Mullock 14.5% | Jeff Van Drew 83.5% | Likely Republican | $27.2K |
| NJ-07 | Rebecca Bennett 83.5% | Thomas Kean Jr. 17.5% | Likely Democrat | $22.2K |
| AZ-08 | Bernadette Greene-Placentia 16.5% | Abraham Hamadeh 84% | Likely Republican | $11.5K |
| OK-05 | Jena Nelson 14.5% | Stephanie Bice 84.5% | Likely Republican | $18.0K |
| AK-AL | Democrat 4.5% | Republican 85% | Likely Republican | $53.5K |
| MN-08 | Trina Swanson 13.5% | Pete Stauber 85.5% | Likely Republican | $21.2K |
| NC-03 | Raymond Smith Jr. 13.5% | Greg Murphy 85.5% | Likely Republican | $20.6K |
| TX-28 | Henry Cuellar 85.5% | Tano Tijerina 13.5% | Likely Democrat | $10.2K |
| NY-02 | Patrick Halpin 13.5% | Andrew Garbarino 86% | Likely Republican | $18.0K |
| FL-12 | Kimberly Overman 9.5% | Gus Bilirakis 86.5% | Likely Republican | $60.5K |
| NC-05 | Chuck Hubbard 13.5% | Virginia Foxx 86.5% | Likely Republican | $44.7K |
| MO-05 | Emanuel Cleaver 87.4% | Rick Brattin 9.9% | Likely Democrat | $74.1K |
| FL-04 | LaShonda Holloway 11.5% | Aaron Bean 87.5% | Likely Republican | $28.4K |
| FL-11 | James Pericola 12.5% | Joe Strada 87.5% | Likely Republican | $24.1K |
| NC-14 | Lakesha Womack 13.5% | Tim Moore 87.5% | Likely Republican | $33.9K |
| KS-02 | Don Coover 12.5% | Derek Schmidt 88% | Likely Republican | $16.3K |
| TN-09 | Justin Pearson 13% | Brent Taylor 88% | Likely Republican | $45.8K |
| CA-48 | Marni von Wilpert 88.5% | Jim Desmond 11% | Likely Democrat | $32.6K |
| GA-12 | Ceretta Smith 10.5% | Rick Allen 88.5% | Likely Republican | $43.8K |
| TX-32 | Dan Barrios 9.6% | Jace Yarbrough 88.5% | Likely Republican | $41.8K |
| TX-24 | Kevin Burge 8.5% | Beth Van Duyne 89% | Likely Republican | $61.9K |
| WI-08 | Rick Crosson 9.0% | Tony Wied 89% | Likely Republican | $26.1K |
| OH-01 | Greg Landsman 89% | Eric Conroy 9.8% | Likely Democrat | $34.8K |
| CA-22 | Randy Villegas 89.5% | David Valadao 9.0% | Likely Democrat | $17.5K |
| FL-02 | Amanda Green 8.5% | Austin Rogers 90% | Likely Republican | $16.5K |
| MD-01 | Dan Schwartz 10% | Andy Harris 90% | Likely Republican | $62.8K |
| TX-10 | Caitlin Rourk 8.0% | Chris Gober 90% | Likely Republican | $36.3K |
| FL-21 | James Martin 9.3% | Brian Mast 90.5% | Likely Republican | $15.7K |
| FL-26 | Nicole Locklin 9.5% | Mario Díaz-Balart 90.5% | Likely Republican | $66.0K |
| MN-06 | Doug Chapin 7.5% | Tom Emmer 90.5% | Likely Republican | $44.1K |
| NY-04 | Laura Gillen 90.5% | Jeanine Driscoll 8.1% | Likely Democrat | $5.8K |
| WA-03 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 90.5% | John Braun 10% | Likely Democrat | $35.8K |
| MI-01 | Callie Barr 8.6% | Jack Bergman 91% | Likely Republican | $23.3K |
| PA-16 | Justin Wagner 7.7% | Mike Kelly 91% | Likely Republican | $40.3K |
| NH-01 | Stefany Shaheen 91.5% | Anthony DiLorenzo 7.0% | Likely Democrat | $16.0K |
| AZ-05 | Elizabeth Lee 8.5% | Mark Lamb 91.5% | Likely Republican | $37.3K |
| FL-18 | Curtis Gibson 8.0% | Scott Franklin 91.5% | Likely Republican | $39.2K |
| NC-06 | Cyril Jefferson 8.5% | Addison McDowell 91.5% | Likely Republican | $49.6K |
| OH-08 | Vanessa Enoch 9.5% | Warren Davidson 91.5% | Likely Republican | $14.8K |
| SC-02 | Zyon Khalifa 7.5% | Joe Wilson 91.5% | Likely Republican | $46.1K |
| SC-05 | Mallory Dittmer 7.5% | Wes Climer 91.5% | Likely Republican | $10.9K |
| TN-05 | Chaz Molder 8.2% | Charlie Hatcher 91.5% | Likely Republican | $63.1K |
| NY-03 | Tom Suozzi 92% | Mike LiPetri 7.5% | Likely Democrat | $26.6K |
| WA-04 | John Duresky 6.5% | Amanda McKinney 92% | Likely Republican | $57.7K |
| NH-02 | Maggie Goodlander 92.4% | Lily Tang Williams 7.2% | Likely Democrat | $16.9K |
| PA-11 | Nancy Mannion 6.8% | Lloyd Smucker 92.4% | Likely Republican | $27.6K |
| CA-45 | Derek Tran 92.5% | Chuong Vo 7.0% | Likely Democrat | $38.0K |
| FL-05 | Rachel Grage 7.5% | John Rutherford 92.5% | Likely Republican | $16.9K |
| FL-15 | Robert People 7.7% | Laurel Lee 92.5% | Likely Republican | $31.9K |
| GA-01 | Amanda Hollowell 6.5% | Jim Kingston 92.5% | Likely Republican | $21.0K |
| KS-04 | Katy Tyndell 6.5% | Ron Estes 92.5% | Likely Republican | $71.9K |
| LA-06 | Democrat 6.0% | Republican 92.5% | Likely Republican | $74.6K |
| MO-04 | Jordan Herrera 7.5% | Mark Alford 92.5% | Likely Republican | $50.5K |
| NV-03 | Susie Lee 92.5% | Martin O'Donnell 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $7.2K |
| NY-11 | Michael DeCillis 7.0% | Nicole Malliotakis 92.5% | Likely Republican | $26.2K |
| OR-05 | Janelle Bynum 92.5% | Patti Adair 5.9% | Likely Democrat | $12.3K |
| TX-22 | Marquette Greene-Scott 7.5% | Trever Nehls 92.5% | Likely Republican | $26.6K |
| TX-36 | Rhonda Hart 6.3% | Brian Babin 92.5% | Likely Republican | $30.6K |
| VA-06 | Beth Macy 6.5% | Ben Cline 92.5% | Likely Republican | $118.5K |
| GA-02 | Sanford Bishop 93% | Matt Day 6.8% | Likely Democrat | $27.0K |
| MN-02 | Matt Little 93% | Eric Pratt 6.7% | Likely Democrat | $38.5K |
| NY-24 | Alissa Ellman 6.5% | Claudia Tenney 93% | Likely Republican | $22.7K |
| OK-01 | John Croisant 7.5% | Mark Tedford 93% | Likely Republican | $34.9K |
| TX-38 | Melissa McDonough 6.3% | Jon Bonck 93% | Likely Republican | $28.0K |
| CA-23 | Tessa Lynn Hodge 6.2% | Jay Obernolte 93.2% | Likely Republican | $61.9K |
| NY-18 | Pat Ryan 93.3% | Jacqueline Auringer 6.6% | Likely Democrat | $43.0K |
| MI-05 | Christian Vukasovich 5.1% | Tim Walberg 93.5% | Likely Republican | $30.1K |
| CA-05 | Michael Masuda 6.6% | Tom McClintock 93.5% | Likely Republican | $16.8K |
| CA-21 | Jim Costa 93.5% | Kyle Kirkland 6.5% | Likely Democrat | $27.4K |
| FL-03 | Seth Harp 7.0% | Kat Cammack 93.5% | Likely Republican | $30.4K |
| FL-28 | Phil Ehr 5.5% | Carlos Giménez 93.5% | Likely Republican | $57.6K |
| GA-08 | Kelly Esti 6.5% | Austin Scott 93.5% | Likely Republican | $41.9K |
| GA-14 | Shawn Harris 6.0% | Clay Fuller 93.5% | Likely Republican | $16.9K |
| IL-08 | Melissa Bean 93.5% | Jennifer Davis 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $22.1K |
| IL-17 | Eric Sorensen 93.5% | Dillan Vancil 6.1% | Likely Democrat | $18.7K |
| IN-01 | Frank Mrvan 93.5% | Barb Regnitz 2.5% | Likely Democrat | $7.3K |
| MI-08 | Kristen McDonald Rivet 93.5% | Thomas Smith 6.2% | Likely Democrat | $21.2K |
| NE-02 | Denise Powell 93.5% | Brinker Harding 6.2% | Likely Democrat | $43.5K |
| NM-01 | Melanie Stansbury 93.5% | Didi Okpareke 6.0% | Likely Democrat | $36.7K |
| NY-22 | John Mannion 93.5% | Kailee Buller 6.0% | Likely Democrat | $22.7K |
| OH-05 | Brian Shaver 5.5% | Bob Latta 93.5% | Likely Republican | $49.8K |
| OH-14 | Maria Jukic 6.0% | David Joyce 93.5% | Likely Republican | $43.3K |
| TN-06 | Mike Croley 4.5% | Johnny Garrett 93.5% | Likely Republican | $17.5K |
| TX-06 | Danny Minton 6.2% | Jake Ellzey 93.5% | Likely Republican | $55.5K |
| TX-21 | Kristin Hook 5.5% | Mark Teixeira 93.5% | Likely Republican | $64.3K |
| VA-07 | Eugene Vindman 93.5% | Doug Ollivant 7.0% | Likely Democrat | $12.3K |
| AZ-09 | Dani Sterbinsky 3.6% | Paul Gosar 94% | Likely Republican | $26.3K |
| GA-07 | Tony Kozycki 7.0% | Rich McCormick 94% | Likely Republican | $40.7K |
| KS-01 | Lauren Reinhold 5.5% | Tracey Mann 94% | Likely Republican | $18.2K |
| MO-03 | Bethany Mann 4.1% | Bob Onder 94% | Likely Republican | $35.9K |
| OK-04 | Mitchell Jacob 6.0% | Tom Cole 94% | Likely Republican | $27.6K |
| OR-04 | Val Hoyle 94% | Monique DeSpain 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $22.6K |
| TX-29 | Sylvia Garcia 94% | Martha Fierro 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $9.8K |
| TX-27 | Tanya Lloyd 5.8% | Michael Cloud 94% | Likely Republican | $49.6K |
| AL-05 | Andrew Sneed 4.2% | Dale Strong 94.5% | Likely Republican | $65.9K |
| AZ-04 | Greg Stanton 94.5% | Zuhdi Jasser 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $39.7K |
| CA-25 | Raul Ruiz 94.5% | Joe Males 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $20.2K |
| CA-27 | George Whitesides 94.5% | Jason Gibbs 4.9% | Likely Democrat | $19.3K |
| CA-35 | Norma Torres 94.5% | Mike Cargile 2.9% | Likely Democrat | $36.5K |
| CA-38 | Hilda Solis 94.5% | Pedro Casas 0.7% | Likely Democrat | $64.3K |
| CA-39 | Mark Takano 94.5% | Steve Manos 3.9% | Likely Democrat | $55.2K |
| CO-07 | Brittany Pettersen 94.5% | Tim Bennett 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $28.0K |
| CT-02 | Joe Courtney 94.5% | George Austin 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $17.5K |
| CT-03 | Rosa DeLauro 94.5% | Chris Lancia 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $19.4K |
| FL-06 | Eric Yonce 5.5% | Randy Fine 94.5% | Likely Republican | $24.3K |
| FL-17 | Matthew Montavon 6.5% | Greg Steube 94.5% | Likely Republican | $19.7K |
| FL-19 | Victor Arias 5.5% | Jim Schwartzel 94.5% | Likely Republican | $21.0K |
| GA-03 | Maura Keller 5.5% | Brian Jack 94.5% | Likely Republican | $23.2K |
| GA-09 | Caitlyn Gegen 4.5% | Andrew Clyde 94.5% | Likely Republican | $22.2K |
| HI-02 | Jill Tokuda 94.5% | Brenton Awa 4.6% | Likely Democrat | $68.8K |
| IA-04 | David Dawson 5.5% | Chris McGowan 94.5% | Likely Republican | $41.4K |
| IL-13 | Nikki Budzinski 94.5% | Jeff Wilson 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $18.3K |
| IL-16 | Paul Nolley 5.5% | Darin LaHood 94.5% | Likely Republican | $44.5K |
| IN-04 | Drew Cox 5.5% | Jim Baird 94.5% | Likely Republican | $15.3K |
| IN-06 | Cinde Wirth 4.5% | Jefferson Shreve 94.5% | Likely Republican | $37.3K |
| IN-09 | Brad Meyer 5.5% | Erin Houchin 94.5% | Likely Republican | $29.4K |
| KS-03 | Sharice Davids 94.5% | Eric Jenkins 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $33.0K |
| LA-04 | Democrat 5.5% | Republican 94.5% | Likely Republican | $14.5K |
| MA-02 | Jim McGovern 94.5% | Republican 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $73.1K |
| MD-06 | April McClain Delaney 94.5% | Robin Ficker 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $34.8K |
| MI-03 | Hillary Scholten 94.5% | Terri DeBoer 4.8% | Likely Democrat | $26.5K |
| MN-07 | Erik Osberg 4.5% | Michelle Fischbach 94.5% | Likely Republican | $28.9K |
| MO-06 | Josh Smead 5.5% | Chris Stigall 94.5% | Likely Republican | $49.4K |
| MT-02 | Brian Miller 5.0% | Troy Downing 94.5% | Likely Republican | $45.3K |
| NC-02 | Deborah Ross 94.5% | Eugene Douglass 3.5% | Likely Democrat | $16.1K |
| NJ-01 | Donald Norcross 94.5% | Damon Galdo 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $50.9K |
| NJ-03 | Herb Conaway 94.5% | Michael McGuire 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $32.2K |
| NM-02 | Gabe Vasquez 94.5% | Greg Cunningham 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $54.4K |
| NV-01 | Dina Titus 94.5% | Carrie Buck 5.8% | Likely Democrat | $26.2K |
| OR-02 | Chris Beck 5.5% | Cliff Bentz 94.5% | Likely Republican | $9.0K |
| PA-02 | Brendan Boyle 94.5% | Jessica Arriaga 2.8% | Likely Democrat | $39.4K |
| PA-04 | Madeleine Dean 94.5% | Aurora Stuski 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $21.5K |
| PA-14 | Alan Bradstock 5.5% | Guy Reschenthaler 94.5% | Likely Republican | $27.4K |
| PA-17 | Chris Deluzio 94.5% | Tony Guy 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $20.6K |
| SC-04 | Courtney McClain 5.5% | William Timmons 94.5% | Likely Republican | $47.6K |
| TN-03 | Anna Golladay 4.8% | Chuck Fleischmann 94.5% | Likely Republican | $44.5K |
| TX-02 | Shaun Finnie 5.5% | Steve Toth 94.5% | Likely Republican | $29.6K |
| TX-03 | Evan Hunt 5.5% | Keith Self 94.5% | Likely Republican | $37.8K |
| TX-04 | Jason Pearce 4.5% | Pat Fallon 94.5% | Likely Republican | $43.8K |
| TX-05 | Chelsey Hockett 5.5% | Lance Gooden 94.5% | Likely Republican | $44.9K |
| TX-11 | Claire Reynolds 4.5% | August Pfluger 94.5% | Likely Republican | $35.5K |
| TX-12 | Angela Rodriguez Prilliman 5.5% | Craig Goldman 94.5% | Likely Republican | $40.2K |
| TX-13 | Mark Nair 4.5% | Ronny Jackson 94.5% | Likely Republican | $19.0K |
| TX-17 | Casey Shepard 4.5% | Pete Sessions 94.5% | Likely Republican | $51.5K |
| TX-31 | Justin Early 5.5% | John Carter 94.5% | Likely Republican | $53.3K |
| UT-01 | Ben McAdams 94.5% | Riley Owen 3.8% | Likely Democrat | $42.2K |
| UT-02 | Peter Crosby 4.5% | Blake Moore 94.5% | Likely Republican | $15.9K |
| UT-04 | Jonny Larsen 4.3% | Mike Kennedy 94.5% | Likely Republican | $42.3K |
| VA-10 | Suhas Subramanyam 94.5% | Dave Beckwith 4.3% | Likely Democrat | $7.8K |
| VT-AL | Becca Balint 94.5% | Gerald Malloy 5.2% | Likely Democrat | $40.7K |
| WA-06 | Emily Randall 94.5% | Teresa Fox 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $38.3K |
| WA-10 | Marilyn Strickland 94.5% | Chris Chung 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $31.6K |
| WI-06 | Brad Smith 5.9% | Glenn Grothman 94.5% | Likely Republican | $36.8K |
| WI-07 | Fred Clark 5.2% | Michael Alfonso 94.5% | Likely Republican | $49.8K |
| NJ-06 | Frank Pallone 94.7% | Hillary Herzig 4.8% | Likely Democrat | $28.7K |
| CT-05 | Jahana Hayes 94.8% | Chris Shea 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $8.8K |
| ID-02 | Ellie Gilbreath 5.5% | Mike Simpson 94.8% | Likely Republican | $34.6K |
| IL-14 | Lauren Underwood 94.9% | James Marter 4.6% | Likely Democrat | $16.9K |
| NY-23 | Aaron Gies 4.7% | Nick Langworthy 95% | Likely Republican | $32.3K |
| AL-01 | Clyde Jones Jr. 3.4% | Jerry Carl 95% | Safe Republican | $48.3K |
| AR-03 | Robb Ryerse 5.5% | Steve Womack 95% | Safe Republican | $17.6K |
| CA-31 | Gil Cisneros 95% | Eric Ching 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $18.2K |
| CA-36 | Ted Lieu 95% | Houston Brignano 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $35.3K |
| CA-46 | Lou Correa 95% | David Pan 5.5% | Safe Democrat | $28.3K |
| CA-51 | Sara Jacobs 95% | Ricardo Cabrera 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $34.0K |
| DE-AL | Democrat 95% | Republican 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $43.9K |
| FL-23 | Lois Frankel 95% | Deborah Adeimy 3.6% | Safe Democrat | $24.8K |
| IL-05 | Mike Quigley 95% | Tommy Hanson 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $25.3K |
| IL-11 | Bill Foster 95% | Jeff Walter 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $40.0K |
| KY-02 | Megan Wingfield 4.5% | Brett Guthrie 95% | Safe Republican | $14.0K |
| KY-03 | Morgan McGarvey 95% | Maria Rodriguez 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $40.8K |
| KY-05 | Ned Pillersdorf 4.5% | Hal Rogers 95% | Safe Republican | $44.7K |
| MA-01 | Richard Neal 95% | Republican 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $52.1K |
| MD-05 | Adrian Boafo 95% | Chris Chaffee 2.8% | Safe Democrat | $18.3K |
| MN-03 | Kelly Morrison 95% | Tyler Bass 2.4% | Safe Democrat | $25.2K |
| NJ-08 | Rob Menendez 95% | Republican 5.0% | Safe Democrat | $16.9K |
| NY-06 | Grace Meng 95% | Joseph Chou 5.0% | Safe Democrat | $24.0K |
| OH-04 | Joshua Kolasinski 4.5% | Jim Jordan 95% | Safe Republican | $21.6K |
| OH-06 | Elizabeth Kirtley 4.5% | Michael Rulli 95% | Safe Republican | $68.8K |
| OH-12 | Jerrad Christian 4.5% | Troy Balderson 95% | Safe Republican | $37.5K |
| SC-03 | Eunice Lehmacher 4.5% | Sheri Biggs 95% | Safe Republican | $45.5K |
| SD-AL | Nikki Gronli 3.6% | Marty Jackley 95% | Safe Republican | $32.1K |
| TN-04 | Victoria Broderick 5.5% | Scott DesJarlais 95% | Safe Republican | $71.9K |
| TX-08 | Laura Jones 5.5% | Jessica Hart Steinmann 95% | Safe Republican | $24.1K |
| TX-14 | Thurman Bartie 5.5% | Randy Weber 95% | Safe Republican | $28.7K |
| CA-30 | Laura Friedman 95% | Scott Meyers 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $24.4K |
| MA-09 | Bill Keating 95% | Tyler MacAllister 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $23.3K |
| MN-04 | Betty McCollum 95% | Paul Wikstrom 3.2% | Safe Democrat | $24.3K |
| CA-50 | Scott Peters 95.1% | Steve Cohen 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $64.6K |
| IN-03 | Kelly Thompson 4.5% | Marlin Stutzman 95.1% | Safe Republican | $24.3K |
| ID-01 | Kaylee Peterson 4.7% | Russ Fulcher 95.2% | Safe Republican | $48.2K |
| NY-09 | Yvette Clarke 95.2% | Joel Anabilah-Azumah 1.6% | Safe Democrat | $61.2K |
| GA-11 | Chris Harden 4.9% | John Cowan 95.2% | Safe Republican | $57.4K |
| LA-05 | Democrat 2.9% | Republican 95.2% | Safe Republican | $24.7K |
| GA-10 | Pam Delancy 2.0% | Houston Gaines 95.3% | Safe Republican | $21.2K |
| NJ-05 | Josh Gottheimer 95.3% | Sean Kirrane 4.8% | Safe Democrat | $30.4K |
| IL-01 | Jonathan Jackson 95.3% | Christian Maxwell 4.0% | Safe Democrat | $54.8K |
| TX-25 | Dione Sims 4.0% | Roger Williams 95.3% | Safe Republican | $17.9K |
| WA-01 | Suzan DelBene 95.3% | Mary Silva 1.8% | Safe Democrat | $45.8K |
| NY-19 | Josh Riley 95.5% | Peter Oberacker 4.9% | Safe Democrat | $21.8K |
| AZ-07 | Adelita Grijalva 95.5% | Daniel Butierez 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $35.5K |
| CA-03 | Ami Bera 95.5% | Robb Tucker 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $43.6K |
| CA-09 | Josh Harder 95.5% | John McBride 5.5% | Safe Democrat | $23.4K |
| CA-15 | Kevin Mullin 95.5% | Charles Hoelter 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $122.5K |
| CA-26 | Jacqui Irwin 95.5% | Sam Gallucci 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $35.5K |
| CA-32 | Brad Sherman 95.5% | Larry Thompson 0.5% | Safe Democrat | $26.1K |
| CA-33 | Pete Aguilar 95.5% | Stephanie Vargas 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $21.4K |
| CA-41 | Linda Sánchez 95.5% | Mitch Clemmons 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $20.0K |
| CA-42 | Robert Garcia 95.5% | Brian Burley 3.5% | Safe Democrat | $42.4K |
| CA-47 | Dave Min 95.5% | Jenny Le Roux 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $17.7K |
| CA-49 | Mike Levin 95.5% | Armen Kurdian 4.0% | Safe Democrat | $28.2K |
| CO-02 | Joe Neguse 95.5% | Kelley Dennison 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $40.7K |
| FL-01 | Gay Valimont 3.5% | Jimmy Patronis 95.5% | Safe Republican | $117.8K |
| FL-20 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz 95.5% | Brent Andersen 3.4% | Safe Democrat | $34.2K |
| IL-09 | Daniel Biss 95.5% | John Elleson 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $31.8K |
| LA-03 | Democrat 3.2% | Republican 95.5% | Safe Republican | $35.4K |
| MD-02 | Johnny Olszewski 95.5% | Dave Wallace 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $24.6K |
| MD-03 | Sarah Elfreth 95.5% | Berney Flowers 5.5% | Safe Democrat | $46.1K |
| MI-06 | Debbie Dingell 95.5% | Heather Smiley 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $51.1K |
| MI-09 | Ray Pooley 5.5% | Lisa McClain 95.5% | Safe Republican | $37.6K |
| MO-07 | Missi Hesketh 3.5% | Eric Burlison 95.5% | Safe Republican | $28.8K |
| MS-01 | Cliff Johnson 3.8% | Trent Kelly 95.5% | Safe Republican | $117.6K |
| NJ-10 | LaMonica McIver 95.5% | Carmen Bucco 3.5% | Safe Democrat | $50.5K |
| NJ-11 | Analilia Mejia 95.5% | Joe Hathaway 5.5% | Safe Democrat | $42.9K |
| NY-07 | Claire Valdez 95.5% | Melvin Rivera 0.7% | Safe Democrat | $30.4K |
| NY-25 | Joseph Morelle 95.5% | Virginia McIntyre 3.4% | Safe Democrat | $33.1K |
| NY-26 | Tim Kennedy 95.5% | Dennis Hannon 3.8% | Safe Democrat | $42.6K |
| OK-02 | Brandon Wade 1.7% | Josh Brecheen 95.5% | Safe Republican | $31.2K |
| PA-15 | Ray Bilger 5.0% | Glenn Thompson 95.5% | Safe Republican | $29.6K |
| SC-07 | John Vincent 5.5% | Russell Fry 95.5% | Safe Republican | $37.1K |
| TN-02 | Michaela Barnett 5.5% | Tim Burchett 95.5% | Safe Republican | $33.3K |
| UT-03 | Kent Udell 4.5% | Celeste Maloy 95.5% | Safe Republican | $13.5K |
| AL-06 | Maurice Mercer 3.5% | Gary Palmer 95.5% | Safe Republican | $26.3K |
| CA-10 | Mark DeSaulnier 95.5% | Jeff Frese 4.0% | Safe Democrat | $26.6K |
| MA-06 | Dan Koh 95.5% | Micah Jones 3.3% | Safe Democrat | $27.2K |
| OR-03 | Maxine Dexter 95.5% | Loran Ayles 4.0% | Safe Democrat | $20.4K |
| MI-11 | Jeremy Moss 95.6% | Ethan Baker 2.6% | Safe Democrat | $81.4K |
| MN-05 | Ilhan Omar 95.6% | John Nagel 4.1% | Safe Democrat | $50.1K |
| NJ-04 | Rachel Peace 4.5% | Chris Smith 95.6% | Safe Republican | $19.2K |
| NY-20 | Paul Tonko 95.6% | Ralph Ambrosio 3.6% | Safe Democrat | $35.4K |
| CT-01 | Luke Bronin 95.7% | Amy Chai 4.6% | Safe Democrat | $11.7K |
| HI-01 | Ed Case 95.7% | Adriel Lam 3.5% | Safe Democrat | $41.2K |
| VA-03 | Bobby Scott 95.7% | Edwin Rivera 4.0% | Safe Democrat | $68.5K |
| VA-08 | Don Beyer 95.7% | Tony Sabio 2.1% | Safe Democrat | $40.5K |
| CA-08 | John Garamendi 95.8% | Rudy Recile 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $44.4K |
| ND-AL | Trygve Hammer 3.1% | Julie Fedorchak 95.8% | Safe Republican | $59.9K |
| TN-07 | Darden Copeland 4.5% | Matt Van Epps 95.8% | Safe Republican | $20.7K |
| OR-01 | Suzanne Bonamici 95.8% | Barbara Kahl 3.4% | Safe Democrat | $27.5K |
| CA-52 | Juan Vargas 95.9% | Jeff Belle 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $48.8K |
| CO-06 | Jason Crow 95.9% | Jason Clark 4.1% | Safe Democrat | $31.0K |
| IN-08 | Mary Allen 2.8% | Mark Messmer 95.9% | Safe Republican | $42.4K |
| LA-01 | Democrat 4.5% | Republican 95.9% | Safe Republican | $52.2K |
| NJ-09 | Nellie Pou 95.9% | Rosie Pino 3.4% | Safe Democrat | $37.5K |
| CA-04 | Democrat 95.9% | Republican 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $13.7K |
| TN-08 | Heidi Kuhn 2.3% | David Kustoff 95.9% | Safe Republican | $43.6K |
| AL-03 | Lee McInnis 0.4% | Mike Rogers 96% | Safe Republican | $43.1K |
| CA-06 | Democrat 96% | Republican 3.4% | Safe Democrat | $50.8K |
| ME-01 | Chellie Pingree 96% | Ronald Russell 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $47.6K |
| TX-30 | Frederick Haynes III 96% | Everett Jackson 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $48.3K |
| TX-33 | Colin Allred 96% | Patrick Gillespie 0.8% | Safe Democrat | $16.6K |
| IL-06 | Sean Casten 96% | Niki Conforti 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $43.2K |
| IL-15 | Jennifer Todd 3.9% | Mary Miller 96% | Safe Republican | $44.2K |
| KY-01 | Drew Williams 3.6% | James Comer 96% | Safe Republican | $50.4K |
| NY-14 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 96% | Diamant Hysenaj 3.5% | Safe Democrat | $55.6K |
| WA-09 | Adam Smith 96% | Doug Basler 2.4% | Safe Democrat | $51.4K |
| FL-24 | Oliver Gilbert 96% | Te Mayonna Brown 2.2% | Safe Democrat | $34.1K |
| NY-16 | George Latimer 96% | Joseph Cinquemani 0.9% | Safe Democrat | $41.5K |
| TX-07 | Lizzie Fletcher 96% | Alexander Hale 2.0% | Safe Democrat | $30.2K |
| VA-09 | Joy Powers 2.2% | Morgan Griffith 96% | Safe Republican | $66.4K |
| IL-10 | Brad Schneider 96.1% | Carl Lambrecht 1.1% | Safe Democrat | $32.8K |
| CA-29 | Democrat 96.2% | Republican 3.4% | Safe Democrat | $30.7K |
| NC-08 | Colby Watson 3.4% | Mark Harris 96.2% | Safe Republican | $31.6K |
| NE-03 | Becky Stille 2.5% | Adrian Smith 96.2% | Safe Republican | $15.8K |
| OR-06 | Andrea Salinas 96.2% | David Russ 0.7% | Safe Democrat | $26.8K |
| PA-09 | Rachel Wallace 3.6% | Dan Meuser 96.2% | Safe Republican | $22.2K |
| WI-05 | Andrew Beck 4.0% | Scott Fitzgerald 96.2% | Safe Republican | $59.3K |
| FL-08 | Jennifer Jenkins 4.5% | Mike Haridopolos 96.2% | Safe Republican | $33.7K |
| MD-07 | Kweisi Mfume 96.2% | Scott Collier 2.9% | Safe Democrat | $24.4K |
| NV-04 | Steven Horsford 96.2% | Cody Whipple 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $19.2K |
| MA-03 | Lori Trahan 96.3% | Gary Grossi 2.2% | Safe Democrat | $23.3K |
| LA-02 | Democrat 96.4% | Republican 1.4% | Safe Democrat | $62.0K |
| MO-08 | Chris Reichard 2.2% | Jason Smith 96.4% | Safe Republican | $46.1K |
| PA-03 | Chris Rabb 96.4% | Republican 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $33.6K |
| RI-02 | Seth Magaziner 96.4% | Victor Mellor 2.2% | Safe Democrat | $47.5K |
| OH-13 | Emilia Sykes 96.4% | Carey Coleman 3.5% | Safe Democrat | $21.3K |
| CA-02 | Jared Huffman 96.5% | Robin Littau 1.2% | Safe Democrat | $20.9K |
| CA-16 | Sam Liccardo 96.5% | Peter Soulé 1.9% | Safe Democrat | $107.5K |
| CA-28 | Judy Chu 96.5% | April Verlato 1.5% | Safe Democrat | $141.3K |
| NC-04 | Valerie Foushee 96.5% | Max Ganorkar 3.5% | Safe Democrat | $46.8K |
| NM-03 | Teresa Leger Fernández 96.5% | Martin Zamora 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $51.8K |
| OH-03 | Joyce Beatty 96.5% | Cleophus Dulaney 2.1% | Safe Democrat | $58.7K |
| PA-12 | Summer Lee 96.5% | James Hayes 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $24.2K |
| TX-01 | Yolanda Prince 2.4% | Nathaniel Moran 96.5% | Safe Republican | $59.1K |
| CA-07 | Democrat 96.5% | Republican 2.4% | Safe Democrat | $12.8K |
| IL-03 | Delia Ramirez 96.5% | Angel Oakley 1.9% | Safe Democrat | $51.4K |
| NJ-12 | Adam Hamawy 96.5% | Gregg Mele 3.3% | Safe Democrat | $29.5K |
| CA-20 | Sandra Van Scotter 2.6% | Vince Fong 96.6% | Safe Republican | $49.1K |
| CA-37 | Democrat 96.6% | Republican 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $3.4K |
| IN-02 | Jamee Decio 4.0% | Rudy Yakym 96.6% | Safe Republican | $33.3K |
| NC-12 | Alma Adams 96.6% | Jack Codiga 2.2% | Safe Democrat | $66.3K |
| WA-02 | Rick Larsen 96.6% | Edwin Feller 2.1% | Safe Democrat | $32.3K |
| PA-13 | Beth Farnham 3.9% | John Joyce 96.7% | Safe Republican | $17.8K |
| TX-18 | Christian Menefee 96.7% | Ronald Whitfield 3.2% | Safe Democrat | $16.2K |
| WA-07 | Pramila Jayapal 96.7% | Nirav Sheth 2.2% | Safe Democrat | $34.6K |
| IL-04 | Patty Garcia 96.7% | Lupe Castillo 3.7% | Safe Democrat | $61.7K |
| IL-07 | La Shawn Ford 96.7% | Chad Koppie 1.1% | Safe Democrat | $26.7K |
| NY-08 | Hakeem Jeffries 96.7% | Lewis Mizrahi 1.7% | Safe Democrat | $32.7K |
| VA-04 | Jennifer McClellan 96.7% | Robert Murray 1.7% | Safe Democrat | $41.7K |
| CA-43 | Maxine Waters 96.8% | Cristian Morales 2.8% | Safe Democrat | $31.8K |
| MA-05 | Katherine Clark 96.8% | Republican 2.2% | Safe Democrat | $37.3K |
| MS-04 | Jeffrey Hulum III 3.0% | Mike Ezell 96.8% | Safe Republican | $40.3K |
| WV-02 | Ace Parsi 3.0% | Riley Moore 96.8% | Safe Republican | $100.0K |
| CA-44 | Nanette Barragán 96.9% | Genevieve Angel 1.6% | Safe Democrat | $46.8K |
| FL-10 | Maxwell Frost 96.9% | Republican 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $23.6K |
| GA-06 | Lucy McBath 96.9% | Kevin Martin 2.2% | Safe Democrat | $23.9K |
| CA-01 | Mike McGuire 96.9% | James Gallagher 2.6% | Safe Democrat | $35.1K |
| GA-13 | Jasmine Clark 96.9% | Jonathan Chavez 2.6% | Safe Democrat | $39.5K |
| OK-03 | Suzie Byrd 0.7% | Frank Lucas 96.9% | Safe Republican | $105.1K |
| PA-06 | Chrissy Houlahan 96.9% | Marty Young 1.8% | Safe Democrat | $38.1K |
| RI-01 | Gabe Amo 96.9% | Kellie Keenan 2.1% | Safe Democrat | $43.3K |
| WA-08 | Kim Schrier 96.9% | Spencer Meline 2.6% | Safe Democrat | $22.8K |
| CA-13 | Adam Gray 97% | Kevin Lincoln 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $28.4K |
| MA-08 | Stephen Lynch 97% | Robert Burke 1.7% | Safe Democrat | $27.7K |
| IL-02 | Donna Miller 97.1% | Michael Noack 1.1% | Safe Democrat | $33.7K |
| KY-04 | Melissa Strange 1.8% | Ed Gallrein 97.1% | Safe Republican | $45.6K |
| SC-06 | Jim Clyburn 97.1% | John Peterson 2.1% | Safe Democrat | $43.5K |
| TX-20 | Joaquin Castro 97.1% | Edgardo Rafael Baez 2.1% | Safe Democrat | $38.4K |
| IN-07 | André Carson 97.2% | Patrick McAuley 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $45.7K |
| NY-05 | Gregory Meeks 97.2% | George Marsh 1.0% | Safe Democrat | $63.9K |
| WI-04 | Gwen Moore 97.2% | Tim Rogers 1.4% | Safe Democrat | $36.8K |
| AR-04 | James Russell 2.1% | Bruce Westerman 97.2% | Safe Republican | $24.3K |
| MA-04 | Jake Auchincloss 97.2% | Tom Stalcup 0.9% | Safe Democrat | $47.5K |
| NY-13 | Darializa Avila Chevalier 97.2% | Jomo Williams 2.2% | Safe Democrat | $39.9K |
| CA-17 | Ro Khanna 97.3% | Ritesh Tandon 1.7% | Safe Democrat | $15.8K |
| CO-01 | Melat Kiros 97.3% | Christy Peterson 2.1% | Safe Democrat | $43.3K |
| TX-16 | Veronica Escobar 97.3% | Adam Bauman 2.4% | Safe Democrat | $27.0K |
| CA-18 | Zoe Lofgren 97.4% | Shane Lewis 2.3% | Safe Democrat | $40.1K |
| MD-08 | Jamie Raskin 97.4% | Cheryl Riley 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $28.0K |
| MS-02 | Bennie Thompson 97.4% | Ron Eller 2.8% | Safe Democrat | $45.7K |
| NC-10 | Ashley Bell 3.1% | Pat Harrigan 97.4% | Safe Republican | $9.1K |
| IL-12 | Julie Fortier 3.5% | Mike Bost 97.4% | Safe Republican | $25.2K |
| MD-04 | Glenn Ivey 97.4% | George McDermott 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $47.1K |
| AR-01 | Terri Green 1.2% | Rick Crawford 97.5% | Safe Republican | $26.8K |
| TX-26 | Steven Shook 2.2% | Brandon Gill 97.5% | Safe Republican | $34.7K |
| TX-37 | Greg Casar 97.5% | Lauren Peña 1.3% | Safe Democrat | $45.1K |
| VA-11 | James Walkinshaw 97.5% | Arthur Purves 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $28.3K |
| CA-14 | Democrat 97.5% | Republican 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $35.8K |
| OH-02 | Jennifer Mazzuckelli 1.8% | David Taylor 97.5% | Safe Republican | $60.8K |
| OH-11 | Shontel Brown 97.5% | Mike Kirchner 1.5% | Safe Democrat | $38.4K |
| NY-12 | Micah Lasher 97.6% | Caroline Shinkle 1.6% | Safe Democrat | $32.9K |
| CA-12 | Democrat 97.8% | Republican 1.3% | Safe Democrat | $44.7K |
| GA-05 | Nikema Williams 97.8% | John Oscar Salvesen 0.1% | Safe Democrat | $53.3K |
| MA-07 | Ayanna Pressley 97.9% | Republican 1.9% | Safe Democrat | $36.5K |
| MI-13 | Donavan McKinney 97.9% | T.P. Nykoriak 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $49.6K |
| MS-03 | Michael Chiaradio 0.4% | Michael Guest 97.9% | Safe Republican | $62.0K |
| AL-07 | Terri Sewell 97.9% | Ammie Akin 1.8% | Safe Democrat | $80.4K |
| CA-24 | Salud Carbajal 97.9% | Bob Smith 1.2% | Safe Democrat | $51.1K |
| MI-12 | Rashida Tlaib 97.9% | James Hooper 0.1% | Safe Democrat | $40.8K |
| MI-02 | Ben Ambrose 0.8% | John Moolenaar 98% | Safe Republican | $53.9K |
| AL-04 | Amanda Pusczek 0.4% | Robert Aderholt 98% | Safe Republican | $38.1K |
| MO-01 | Wesley Bell 98% | Paul Berry 1.4% | Safe Democrat | $36.8K |
| CT-04 | Jim Himes 98% | Michael Goldstein 1.7% | Safe Democrat | $48.4K |
| AZ-03 | Yassamin Ansari 98.2% | Republican 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $52.7K |
| GA-04 | Hank Johnson 98.2% | James Duffie 1.3% | Safe Democrat | $48.1K |
| TN-01 | Kristi Burke 1.9% | Diana Harshbarger 98.2% | Safe Republican | $27.1K |
| WV-01 | Vince George 2.1% | Carol Miller 98.2% | Safe Republican | $62.3K |
| NY-10 | Brad Lander 98.4% | Jennifer Moore 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $53.9K |
| CA-11 | Democrat 98.5% | Republican 0.5% | Safe Democrat | $21.8K |
| NY-15 | Ritchie Torres 98.5% | Stylo Sapaskis 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $47.6K |
| WI-02 | Mark Pocan 98.5% | Republican 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $102.5K |
| PA-05 | Mary Gay Scanlon 98.7% | Nicholas Manganaro 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $37.2K |
| WY-AL | Lisa Kinney 0.2% | Chuck Gray 99% | Safe Republican | $46.9K |
| TX-19 | Kyle Rable 1.0% | Tom Sell 99.2% | Safe Republican | $30.2K |
| CA-19 | Jimmy Panetta 99.3% | Peter Coe Verbica 0.3% | Safe Democrat | $49.6K |
| CA-34 | Democrat 99.8% | Republican 0.1% | Safe Democrat | $49.6K |
Independent and third-party candidates priced at 10% or more: ME-02 (A 50%); ME-02 (B 50%); ME-02 (C 50%); ME-02 (D 50%); ME-02 (E 50%); SC-02 (B 50%); SC-02 (A 49.5%).
Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls and not quotes you can trade at; the two sides can add up to slightly more or less than 100%. Educational information, not betting advice.
More: 2026 midterm forecast (all chambers) · Senate forecast · Governor forecast · 2026 elections by state · All house markets · 2026 midterms odds · 2026 midterms guide · Odds on people
Polymarket gives the Democratic Party a 92.5% chance to win the House in 2026 (as of September 24, 2026). Across 434 districts with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 233 and Republicans in 201; the closest: MI-04 (Bill Huizenga 52.5%), FL-22 (Pia Dandiya 53.5%), IA-02 (Lindsay James 54%), MI-07 (William Lawrence 56.5%); the most likely Republican House seat count is Below 190 (29%).
Races where no candidate is priced at 60% or more: MI-04 (Bill Huizenga 52.5%); FL-22 (Pia Dandiya 53.5%); IA-02 (Lindsay James 54%); MI-07 (William Lawrence 56.5%); VA-01 (Rob Wittman 58.5%).
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. They are market prices, not polls or a model, and they move with every trade.
Our accuracy study checks resolved Polymarket markets against the price a week before close: polymarkettrader.com/odds/accuracy/.
Free JSON: /api/v1/midterms-2026.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.