Home › Polymarket odds › Geopolitics & World
Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: February 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.0–5.0% at 90.5%, followed by 5.0–6.0% at 5.9%, 3.0–4.0% at 1.2%. The market has $911.1K in total volume and $66 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0–5.0% | 90.5% | — | $233.1K |
| 5.0–6.0% | 5.9% | +0.1 pts | $81.2K |
| 3.0–4.0% | 1.2% | — | $81.5K |
| 9.0%+ | 0.9% | — | $117.6K |
| 8.0–9.0% | 0.5% | — | $54.8K |
| 2.0–3.0% | 0.4% | — | $46.0K |
| 6.0-7.0% | 0.1% | — | $87.9K |
| 1.0–2.0% | 0.1% | — | $75.5K |
| <1.0% | 0.1% | — | $68.2K |
| 7.0–8.0% | <0.1% | — | $65.4K |
Total volume $911.1K · 24h volume $66 · Liquidity $88.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 4.0–5.0% ■ 5.0–6.0% ■ 3.0–4.0% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: China & Taiwan odds · US Economy odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.0–5.0% at 90.5%, followed by 5.0–6.0% at 5.9%, 3.0–4.0% at 1.2%. The market has $911.1K in total volume and $66 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is February 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="China Annual GDP Growth 2026 odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026/">China Annual GDP Growth 2026 odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “China Annual GDP Growth 2026 — Polymarket odds”, September 24, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026.svg" alt="China Annual GDP Growth 2026 odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog