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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: October 21, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.3-4.6% at 36%, followed by 4.0-4.3% at 26.5%, 4.6-4.9% at 20%. The market has $46.5K in total volume and $431 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.3-4.6% | 36% | +1.0 pts | $17.1K |
| 4.0-4.3% | 26.5% | -4.1 pts | $5.3K |
| 4.6-4.9% | 20% | +0.5 pts | $11.1K |
| 3.7-4.0% | 5.7% | -4.9 pts | $2.6K |
| 4.9-5.2% | 3.6% | +2.5 pts | $4.3K |
| 3.4-3.7% | 0.5% | — | $985 |
| 5.5%+ | 0.2% | +0.2 pts | $1.7K |
| <3.4% | 0.2% | — | $1.6K |
| 5.2-5.5% | 0.1% | — | $1.9K |
Total volume $46.5K · 24h volume $431 · Liquidity $8.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 4.3-4.6% ■ 4.0-4.3% ■ 4.6-4.9% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: China & Taiwan odds · US Economy odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.3-4.6% at 36%, followed by 4.0-4.3% at 26.5%, 4.6-4.9% at 20%. The market has $46.5K in total volume and $431 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 21, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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