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Updated October 18, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 18, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $900B-$1.00T at 49.2%, followed by $800-$900B at 26.3%, $1.00-$1.10T at 20%. The market has $21.1K in total volume and $7.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| $900B-$1.00T | 49.2% | +4.3 pts | $6.8K |
| $800-$900B | 26.3% | +3.6 pts | $2.7K |
| $1.00-$1.10T | 20% | -3.5 pts | $5.5K |
| $700-$800B | 2.1% | -1.2 pts | $972 |
| <$700B | 0.8% | -0.7 pts | $987 |
| $1.20T+ | 0.2% | -0.7 pts | $979 |
| $1.10-$1.20T | 0.2% | -4.2 pts | $3.1K |
Total volume $21.1K · 24h volume $7.3K · Liquidity $12.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ $900B-$1.00T ■ $800-$900B ■ $1.00-$1.10T · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on October 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/), specifically the datapoint for the specified date, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 18, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is $900B-$1.00T at 49.2%, followed by $800-$900B at 26.3%, $1.00-$1.10T at 20%. The market has $21.1K in total volume and $7.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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