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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 14%, followed by September 30 at 1.9%. The market has $1.09M in total volume and $139 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 14% | — | $167.2K |
| September 30 | 1.9% | +0.5 pts | $156.3K |
| March 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $364.4K |
| April 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $184.9K |
| August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $115.6K |
| June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $104.7K |
Total volume $1.09M · 24h volume $139 · Liquidity $41.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ December 31 ■ September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.
Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border.
Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.
Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Israel odds · Middle East odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 14%, followed by September 30 at 1.9%. The market has $1.09M in total volume and $139 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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